WHILE the US Department of Agriculture has projected global cotton production for 2013-14 to be lower by three per cent, it predicts cotton output in Pakistan to increase by four per cent. The projected increase in the cropΆs output is mainly attributed to a ΅yield reboundΆ.

The yield rebound is forecast because of a lower crop output in 2013. The USDAΆs 2013-14 projections show that output is contracting in the United States, China, and Australia, which together account for 44 per cent of world production, compared with a 46 per cent share in the previous year. In contrast, Pakistan, Brazil and India are projected to increase production in 2013-14. Total cultivated area for cotton in the world is estimated to decline to about 33 million hectares, while yields are expected to remain nearer to those in 2012-13.

The report says that tight water supplies in Pakistan were a consequence of reduced water flow due to slow glacier melt, which was exacerbated as power shortages limited the ability of electric pumps to draw sufficient well water. Finally, torrential rains and floods during September affected the cotton growing areas of Punjab, damaging close to 80,000 hectares of standing cotton.

Meanwhile, in its latest report, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), states that world cotton production is currently five per cent below than earlier estimates whereas consumption is expected two per cent higher than the previous prediction.

Commenting on the report, Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) said the actual cotton arrival in ginning factories was 12.8 million bales by March 15.

The figures of domestic cotton production in Pakistan and India quoted by the PCGA show that total output in the two countries will be lower in 2012-13 as compared to the previous year. Pakistan is likely to miss this seasonΆs target of 14.5 million bales, which was set before the season started.

According to a report issued by Cotton Corporation of India, shortage in cotton production has been reported in the Indian states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Paradesh with 30 per cent shortfall in production.

Meanwhile, National Cotton Council of America says cottonΆs 2013 outlook will be influenced by ChinaΆs policy decisions and continued competition from man-made fibre. China, the worldΆs top cotton grower, is projected to produce 33 million bales in 2013/14, down three per cent from a year ago. Despite the governmentΆs generous price support, growers in eastern China face rising production costs and are expected to shift production to less labour-intensive and more profitable alternatives.

Fabric manufacturers in China are increasingly looking to meet their yarn demand with imported product, mainly from Pakistan. After consecutive declines, cotton demand has stabilised and is expected to grow in the coming year. However, the battle for market share with man-made fibres continues to be fierce.

ChinaΆs harvested area is projected at five million hectares, a five-per cent reduction from the previous year. AustraliaΆs production is likely to decline by 17 per cent from a year ago to 3.5 million bales due to a weaker market price for cotton and decreasing reservoir supplies for irrigation. Brazil crop is projected at 7.5 million bales, up one million from the previous year.

India, the worldΆs second largest cotton grower, is projected to produce 26 million bales in 2013/14, a two per cent increase from the previous year. While planted area is expected to decline slightly, recovery in yields from 2012 is expected to support production.

Pakistan is the fourth largest producer of cotton and the third largest consumer of cotton and also the largest exporter of cotton yarn in the world. PakistanΆs cotton crop is traditionally planted from late April through June and is harvested in the autumn.

Pakistan is among the countries which have not so far formally introduced biotech cotton or any other new variety of the crop, even on a small scale and in limited areas, and one reason may be the Indian experience it has witnessed with alarm and which ended up in mass suicides by farmers after having become debt slaves. Still, the government should not ignore the need for research on exploring indigenous BT cotton varieties which can give higher crops and also resist pests. — Ashfak Bokhari