By Dr. Seshadri Ramkumar

IndiaΆs cotton crop for 2013/14 will be almost 7% higher than last yearΆs according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), which released its latest cotton projection for the current season, which began Oct. 1.

Total production is estimated to be 38 million bales (170 kg each), which is 6.7% more than the 35.6 million bales recorded last year. This estimate is essentially the same as the latest estimate from USDA, which was released Nov. 8.

The opening stock for this season will be lower than in 2012/13. With a total cotton supply of about 43.87 million bales, CAI has estimated there will be an available surplus of 13.8 million bales this year.

IndiaΆs mill consumption will be 26 million bales, which is approximately one million bales higher than last year. Although the production estimate is positive, there is some panic in the industry with regard to possible minimum support price (MSP) operation in states like Andhra Pradesh. Lower seed cotton prices have has raised the possibility of MSP kicking in, according to a statement from CAI.