USDA has released its July 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:
The July U.S. cotton projections for 2024/25 show higher acreage, production, and beginning and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected domestic use and exports are unchanged. U.S. planted area is 1 million acres higher, as indicated in the June Acreage report, leading to a 1-million-bale increase in the crop projection to 17.0 million bales. Ending stocks are 1.2 million bales higher at 5.3 million, or 36% of use, primarily due to the larger projected crop. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is reduced 2 cents from the June forecast to 68 cents per pound.
Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 200,000-bale reduction in exports to 11.6 million based on the slowing pace of export shipments and a corresponding 200,000-bale increase in ending stocks.
For the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, production and consumption are increased, while beginning stocks and world trade are reduced. Beginning stocks are 1.7 million bales lower compared to June, with India accounting for a large portion of the reduction. The forecast for global production is raised 1.1 million bales to 120.2 million, largely due to higher forecasted production for the United States. Consumption is 250,000 bales higher, with increases in India and Malaysia offsetting reductions elsewhere. As a result, world ending stocks are reduced 860,000 bales from June to 82.6 million bales. Revisions to the 2023/24 world balance sheet include lower beginning stocks and higher consumption, resulting in a 1.7-million-bale reduction in ending stocks.