EUR/US$: 1.1378
U.S. Cotton: Prices Close Higher as China Lifts Tariffs on U.S. Cotton
Barchart: Cotton futures finished 4 to 71 points higher across the board on Monday, with Dec26 at 82.86 cents (+15 points), Mar27 at 85.75 (+26) and Oct26 at 79.06. Crude oil rose slightly and the dollar index firmed. Following last week's U.S.-China meeting, Beijing removed tariffs on a range of American goods, cotton among them. Crop Progress showed 70% of the crop with bolls opening and harvest at 17%, two points ahead of normal, with condition ratings at 35% good/excellent, a point better on the week. The Seam sold just 178 bales on September 25 at an average of 63.49 cents/lb, the Cotlook A Index rose 50 points to 93.75, ICE certified stocks fell 1,455 bales to 28,064, and the Adjusted World Price stands at 66.09 cents/lb.
Source: Barchart
U.S. Cotton: Open Interest Sets an All-Time Record
Calcot (Cindy Walters): December settled at 82.86 cents, up 15 points, on volume of 61,336 contracts. The bigger story is open interest, which hit an all-time high of 386,954 contracts on Friday, passing the previous record set on February 4; 2026 is only the fourth calendar year in which open interest has topped 300,000 contracts, and it has held above that level all year. The CFTC report for the week to September 22 showed a third consecutive week in which long positions moved from speculative to trade hands, shrinking the spec net long and the trade net short without reducing open interest. The Trump-Xi meeting produced a framework for reciprocal tariff cuts covering $30 billion of goods each way, including some agricultural products. China's State Reserve auctions are due to conclude, with cumulative sales at about 1.79 million bales, 58% of it U.S. cotton, and the country heads into Golden Week from October 1 to 7. Outside markets were under pressure as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions lifted oil and revived inflation worries, with the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5.27% intraday, its highest since 2007, while gold and silver fell sharply. December has still not settled above its 10-day moving average since September 1, and the Dec/March spread set a fourth straight contract-high settlement at 289 points March premium.
Source: Calcot
Greece: A Strong Dollar Caps the Upward Reaction
Agronews (Giannis Papadogiannis): December futures fell to 81 cents late last week, a correction of about 12.50 cents in under three weeks from the 93.74-cent high, which analysts consider excessive relative to the fundamentals and leaves the market looking oversold. Demand returned to the physical market early in the week, but the recovery has been limited because the dollar has strengthened. In Greece, buyers are positioned 2-3 cents over December futures, though completed trades remain few as the harvest advances and quality risk keeps both sides cautious.
Source: Agronews
West Africa: Fertiliser Shortages and Port Bottlenecks Cloud the New Crop
Mambo: In its weekly review, Mambo puts African production at around 900,000 tonnes, held back by fertiliser shortages and erratic rainfall, and flags continuing difficulties evacuating cotton through the ports — a growing worry for mills that need reliable shipments. It also questions the viability of investment in local processing while electricity supply remains constrained, and whether certification requirements deliver real added value for growers. On prices, December closed the period at 82.72 cents against 82.85 a week earlier, while the Cotlook A Index rose 2.63% to 93.75. Lower prices have encouraged forward contracting and U.S. buying, but uncertainty over the Indian and Chinese harvests persists, and Mambo expects textile consumption to be hit hard by inflation.
Source: Mambo
U.S. Cotton: Raw Cotton Makes China's Favourable-Tariff List
PCCA: Raw cotton is on China's list of U.S. products set for more favourable tariff treatment, which should help U.S. cotton compete in that market, though cotton yarn and fabric are not on the U.S. list, so the immediate benefit sits on the raw fibre side. There were no specific purchase commitments from the summit, but the two countries are setting up an agricultural working group on market access. PCCA calls it a step in the right direction that still needs to turn into actual business. December gained 156 points on the week to 82.71 cents, most of it on Monday's 227-point jump, and funds sold heavily yet the market still finished higher. China's reserve auctions wrap up on September 30, removing one demand signal. West Texas picked up good rain last week, too late to help yields and a possible quality risk as harvest opens up, and PCCA thinks USDA has room to cut its crop estimate on October 9. Upland net sales jumped to 230,500 bales with shipments at 164,700, and on The Seam 1,830 bales traded at an average 78.33 cents/lb, a premium of 20.09 cents over the loan redemption rate.
Source: PCCA
U.S. Cotton: Crop Progress – Harvest Runs Ahead, Condition Still Weak
USDA: As of September 27, 70% of the U.S. crop had bolls opening, up from 65% a week earlier and ahead of both last year's 66% and the 67% five-year average. Harvest reached 17%, against 13% the previous week, 15% a year ago and a 15% average, with Texas at 32% and Arizona at 40%. Condition was little changed and remains well below last year: 29% good and 6% excellent, against 37% and 10% a year ago, while 23% was rated poor and 12% very poor, versus 12% and 5% last year. Oklahoma stands out with 52% of its crop rated poor, and Texas with 19% very poor.
Source: USDA NASS
Europe: Strategy Targets Half of EU Fibre from Bio-Based and Circular Sources by 2050
Just Style: Textile ETP has launched a Bioeconomy Innovation Strategy for Europe's fibre, textile and apparel industry, calling for bio-based and circular materials to supply at least half the fibre consumed in the EU by 2050, produced in Europe. The strategy responds to rising fossil-fuel dependence and supply-chain exposure — more than 90% of world polyester capacity sits in Asia — and is built on five blocks: bio-based feedstock and biorefining, sustainable cellulosic fibres, biosynthetic alternatives, responsibly sourced natural fibres and biochemistry. Modelling of EU fibre consumption to 2050 suggests the preferred pathway, combining bioeconomy measures with investment in circularity, could mobilise tens of billions of euros a year and create tens of thousands of direct jobs. The plan sets out ten policy recommendations and five value-chain actions, with implementation roadmaps due through 2027.
Source: Just Style
Europe: Farm Europe Warns the EU Is Deepening Its Agricultural Dependencies
Farm Europe: Reacting to the State of the Union address, the think tank argues that the Commission's stated goal of a sovereign, autonomous Europe is being contradicted by its own agricultural policy. It points to a cereals surplus halved and 4 million hectares of cereals lost, wheat imports up 2.4-fold between 2019 and 2023, maize exports down 48% since 2019, 26 million head fewer in the livestock sector and 1.37 million family farms gone — a fifth of the total. Input costs compound the picture, with nitrogen prices in April 2026 running 71% above their 2024 average, while protein dependency has widened to net oilseed and feed imports of 62.3 million tonnes. Farm Europe also criticises the response to drought, trade agreements that it says prioritise non-agricultural sectors, and a proposed budget cut of more than 20% alongside the dissolution of the CAP as a distinct budget line.
Source: Farm Europe
Pakistan: Early Arrivals Point to a Modest Recovery
Dawn: Cotton arrivals at Pakistani ginneries reached 2.389 million bales by September 15, up 19.17% on the 2.004 million a year earlier, with Punjab up 24.73% and Sindh up 16.25%, and industry figures suggest output could pass 6 million bales if conditions hold — against a crop that has fallen to around 5.5 million bales from the record 14.81 million of FY12. Arrivals have already begun to lose momentum, however, and pests, rainfall, acreage and fibre quality remain live risks. The article frames the decline as an industrial rather than purely agricultural problem: with mills increasingly dependent on imported fibre, they are exposed to international price swings and the exchange rate, which argues for diversification toward man-made fibres and technical textiles alongside any recovery in the cotton crop.
Source: Dawn
Pakistan: Ginners Call for a National Campaign to Save the Cotton Economy
Business Recorder: At its general body meeting in Multan, the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association called on the government to launch a "Grow Cotton, Save the Economy" campaign, close sugar mills operating in cotton zones, withdraw taxes on cotton and its by-products, abolish sales tax on cottonseed and cottonseed cake, scrap fixed electricity charges, grant the ginning sector industrial status so it can buy electricity and gas at industrial rates, and fully implement the Cotton Control Act. FPCCI president Atif Ikram Sheikh underlined the cost gap facing the sector, with electricity at 12 cents per unit in Pakistan against six cents in neighbouring countries. Sohail Mahmood Harl was elected unopposed as the association's new chairman.
Source: Business Recorder
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