EUR/US$: 1.1355
U.S. Cotton: Prices Slip Again After Tuesday's Limit-Down Session
Barchart: Cotton futures closed 16 to 43 points lower across the board on Wednesday, with Dec26 at 78.52 cents (-34 points), Mar27 at 81.38 (-37) and Oct26 at 74.79 (-34). Crude oil rebounded $2.06 per barrel on the session and the dollar index edged higher. The Cotlook A Index rose 10 points to 93.35 on Tuesday, ICE certified stocks were unchanged at 28,064 bales, and the Adjusted World Price stands at 66.09 cents/lb.
Source: Barchart
U.S. Cotton: Little to Explain the Crash as Open Interest Sets Another Record
Calcot (Cindy Walters): December settled at 78.52 cents, 34 points below Tuesday's close, on volume of 83,351 contracts — huge, though short of Tuesday's 112,170. Wednesday's trading limit was 400 points, made up of the regular 300-point limit, which applies with the lead month below 80 cents, plus an extra 100 after two or more months went limit down; it reverts to 300 points from Thursday. There was little fresh news to explain Tuesday's crash, and what makes it more puzzling is that open interest rose 2,590 contracts to 389,494, cotton's highest ever — Calcot suspects a growing share of those participants are speculative, which makes moves harder to read. September was a punishing month: December fell 14.62 cents, or 15.7%, from its August 31 contract-high close, and the whole 2026/27 board lost 12% to 18%. Crude oil recovered $1.04 to $90.42 and ended the month 7.6% higher on continuing uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran war, with the two sides still divided over ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. inflation came in softer than expected, with the August PCE index up 0.3% and core PCE 3.0% higher on the year, trimming expectations of an October Fed hike. December is now within 97 points of its 200-day moving average, with two months of trading ranges sitting above as resistance, and China's ZCE is closed October 1-7 for Golden Week after its nearby contract fell to its lowest since mid-April.
Source: Calcot
Brazil: StoneX Holds Its Crop Forecast as Bahia Yields Surprise
Revista Cultivar: StoneX has kept its estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 cotton crop at 4.1 million tonnes, making only minor changes this month but revising Bahia's yield up to 2.21 tonnes per hectare as harvest results come in. Market intelligence analyst Raphael Bulascoschi said yields continue to surprise on the upside, while Mato Grosso is tracking earlier estimates. For 2026/27 the consultancy left its forecasts unchanged, noting that favourable international prices should encourage growers to expand area — something already built into its numbers. Exports are put at 3.3 million tonnes for calendar 2026 and 3.12 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, with StoneX expecting shipments to accelerate into year-end and stressing the need to keep them moving to absorb the stocks building from the larger 2025/26 supply.
Source: Revista Cultivar
Global: Tightest Stocks Since 2011/12, but Mills Are Holding Back
Sourcing Journal (Jon Devine, Cotton Incorporated): Benchmarks ended the month slightly higher after a late-August rally and an early-September retreat — December NY/ICE moved from 84 to 88 cents, having touched 93 cents on August 31, with May 2027 the highest of the 2026/27 board near 91 cents and December 2027 near 80. The A Index briefly topped 100 cents before easing to 96, China's CC Index 3128B held near 123 cents, Indian prices eased back to 92 cents and Pakistani prices rose from 80 to 85 cents. USDA trimmed world production to 117.3 million bales and left mill use at 122.9 million, lifting 2026/27 ending stocks slightly to 69.9 million — the lowest since 2011/12 — with the biggest production changes for Brazil (+250,000 bales), Turkey (-300,000) and the U.S. (-407,000). The implied 5.6-million-bale production deficit would be the largest since 2020/21, and back-to-back years of mill use above 120 million bales would be the first since 2006/07-2007/08. Devine's caution is on demand: U.S. net new sales have run below 100,000 bales in each of the last two reported weeks with no single country adding more than 20,000, and unlike the 100-cent episodes of 2010/11 and 2021/22 there is no wave of stimulus or sharp macro swing to create urgency downstream — instead there is inflation caution and talk of higher rates. China's reserve auctions, which keep selling out despite rising prices, remain one of the few live demand signals.
Source: Sourcing Journal
South Sudan: The "White Oil" the Country Has Yet to Discover
Radio Tamazuj: South Sudan holds roughly 48 million hectares of black cotton soil and a population growing 2.03% a year, yet it has no mechanised agriculture and remains dependent on oil revenue rather than building a cotton and textile chain. The piece contrasts this with China's Wuxi No.1 Cotton Textile Group, founded in 1919, which runs 700,000 spindles and 500 looms, turns out about 40,000 tonnes of yarn and 50 million metres of fabric a year, holds its brand registration in 55 countries — and buys its cotton from Brazil, the United States and Australia rather than Africa. The structural problem is value addition: the WTO reckons about 98% of cotton from West and Central Africa leaves as raw fibre, while Cameroon ships close to 38% of its lint to China. A regional cotton partnership aims to mobilise $5 billion of investment over ten years, which backers say could generate $6 billion in value-added products and 500,000 direct jobs, and the International Trade Centre argues the future of African cotton lies in processing it closer to home.
Source: Radio Tamazuj
India: Falling World Prices and Rising Arrivals Weigh on the Domestic Market
Textile Value Chain: With ICE December down to 80.13 cents from its late-August peak near 93 cents, Indian domestic prices have slipped to ₹64,500-65,500 per candy from highs around ₹70,000, and the Cotton Corporation of India cut its auction prices by ₹1,200 per candy over two days. Cottonseed has fallen ₹300-400 to ₹4,600-4,700 per quintal, adding further pressure to seed cotton values. Daily arrivals of the new crop are running at 50,000-55,000 bales of 170 kg and are expected to rise sharply in October, while mills are buying cautiously with stocks covering only about a month to six weeks. A survey of the standing crop across all ten cotton-growing states points to 2026/27 production falling roughly 10% on the year, and deficient rainfall linked to El Niño is a further threat to supply despite the current pressure from arrivals.
Source: Textile Value Chain
Egypt: $20 Billion Export Target Still Reachable, but Only at a Faster Pace
Textiles Resources: Egypt can still reach $20 billion in annual textile and apparel exports by 2030, but only with a faster-growing export base, according to Mahmoud Ghazal of the Textile Industries Chamber and Nile Textile Industries — a target that would amount to roughly 5% of world trade in the sector. Ready-made garment exports reached about $2.525 billion in January-August 2026, up 16% on the year, with sales to Europe up 26% to $1.087 billion and Spain surging 61% to $227 million. On current trends, though, Ghazal warns shipments would top out near $4 billion. Active garment exporters rose to 749 in the first seven months of 2026 from 722 a year earlier, but he argues the country needs more small and medium firms plugged into global supply chains through direct exports, OEM and private-label work, alongside a clear implementation roadmap and larger capacity.
Source: Textiles Resources
Russia: Cotton Down to a Quarter of Apparel Fabrics as Synthetics Take 60%
Textiles Resources: Russian-made textiles and clothing now cover 45% of domestic consumption and a revised strategy will raise the target to at least 60%, Industry and Trade Minister Anton Alikhanov told the BRICS+ Fashion Summit, against the 50%-by-2035 goal in the current plan. Output has grown about 15% a year over five years, with domestic production up 12.4% last year while the overall market shrank 3%, though the sector has entered consolidation in 2026 after the gaps left by departing global brands were partly filled. The fibre mix is the striking part for cotton: cotton's share of apparel fabrics in Russia has fallen to 25-26% while synthetics approach 60%, against roughly half and 40% three decades ago, a shift Alikhanov describes as following the global trend. Several new synthetic-fibre projects are being developed with petrochemical partners, while Russia buys its raw cotton from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and weaves at home, ranking seventh worldwide in that segment.
Source: Textiles Resources
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