EUR/US$: 1.1203
U.S. Cotton: Futures Slip Lower into the Weekend
Barchart: Cotton futures closed 15 to 59 points lower on Friday, although December still gained 20 points for the week. Crude oil rallied sharply and the dollar firmed. USDA data put U.S. export commitments at 5.449 million RB, 15% above last year but only 47% of USDA's 2026/27 export projection, behind the usual 54% pace. The Cotlook A Index rose 100 points to 92.75 cents, ICE certificated stocks increased by 1,800 bales to 24,722, and the Adjusted World Price rose 40 points to 65.01 cents/lb. Dec 26 settled at 80.20 (−59), Mar 27 at 83.94 (−54) and May 27 at 85.61 (−54).
Source: Barchart
U.S. Cotton: Quiet Week Ends Lower, December Weakness Persists
Calcot – Cindy Walters: December settled at 80.20, down 59 points on Friday but up 20 points for the week, still inside its 14-session range of 79.23–82.25 cents; the last three weekly closes, at 80.54, 80.00 and 80.20, show how tight the market has been. Open interest eased slightly after eight consecutive records. The main feature has been December's relative weakness ahead of first notice day on November 23, with the Dec/March spread setting new contract highs at 374 points March premium, which trade sources consider close to full carry. Index fund rolls begin on October 29 (Rogers) and November 6 (Goldman Sachs). Certificated stocks rose for a fourth straight day, by a total of 9,604 bales, and could keep growing. Cotton was one of the few markets to gain for the week, while crude oil rose 4.3% to new highs on Middle East tensions, and corn and wheat lost 3.8% and 5.4%.
Source: Calcot
U.S. Cotton: Weekly Market Summary
TAMU: ICE futures rose, then fell, then flattened in the week to Thursday, October 22, with December settling at 80.79 cents. Chinese prices weakened before turning mixed, and the A Index was mixed. Through October 18, boll opening was 4 points behind the five-year average and harvest 4 points ahead, with 35% of the crop rated good-to-excellent and 28% fair; rains across the Cotton Belt are likely to affect grades more than anything else. Net upland export sales improved to 199,600 running bales, and shipments rose but remained below the pace needed to meet USDA's target, which is typical for this time of year. Rising open interest through October 21 points to new buying early in the week, and unfixed call sales exceeding unfixed call purchases remain a bullish sign.
Source: Texas A&M Cotton Marketing Planner
Brazil: Record Exports, High Quality and Year-Round Supply
Agrolink: Brazil arrived at the ICA Trade Event in Istanbul as the world's largest cotton exporter, with 34% of global trade, after shipping a record 3.374 million tonnes in 2025/26, while exporters' association Anea projects about 3.4 million tonnes for 2026/27. Shipments averaged 279,000 tonnes a month and exceeded 150,000 tonnes in every month from September to July, ensuring year-round supply. Preliminary HVI results for 10.2 million bales, about half the crop, show more than 90% in the premium range for four of six quality indicators. In Bahia, 42% of the cotton area is irrigated and productivity has risen 56% in 12 years. For 2026/27, Abrapa expects 2–2.2 million hectares and 3.8–4.4 million tonnes, with El Niño and rising input costs the main risks. Natural fibers' share of global fiber consumption has fallen from 37% in 2006 to 21% in 2026, and would be about 17% without Brazil's expansion.
Source: Agrolink
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