The only news of consequence during trading hours was that the government of India has announced it expects a very large crop and is putting more government-held reserves up for sale in the global export market. But this didnΆt have a lot of bearish impact today because it was also reported that very heavy rains are threatening to damage that big Indian cotton crop or at the least, hurt quality significantly.
Traders are already trying to anticipate what USDA might show in the August crop reports due on Aug. 12th. IΆm anticipating a bearish report, if not neutral. Ditto for the WASDE (supply/demand) report that will be issued at the same time. Improved weather for the U.S. has likely boosted yield potential in the S. Plains and last weekΆs isolated reports of excessive rain and cloudiness in the U.S. Southeast hurting boll set are yet to be confirmed in weekly crop condition reports.
NASS just put out the latest one at 3 pm today and it showed 45% of the U.S. crop rated good to excellent, the same as last week and 4 pts better than a year ago. As for the portion of the crop rated poor to very poor, it declined a pt in the last week, to 21%, vs. 27% rated poor to very poor a year ago.
TodayΆs report also shows 94% of th crop has squared, the same as the 5-year average and just 3 pts behind last year. As for boll set, it is late. Just 53% of the crop has set bolls, down from the 5-year avg. of 70% and 71% a year ago.