DTN Cotton Close: Futures Bump Top of Established Trade Range

U.S. new-crop export commitments totaled about 31% of USDAΆs 2013-14 forecast, while old-crop shipments exceeded the previous seasonΆs exports by more than 11%.

Cotton futures bumped against the top of a long-established trading range and settled near the high Thursday.

Benchmark December settled up 92 points to 89.25 cents, in the upper quarter of its 136-point range from up 109 points at 89.42 cents to down 27 points at 88.06 cents.

December opened the overnight session unchanged, hit the high around 8 a.m. CDT, slipped to the low about 90 minutes later and bounced to its highest close since June 14. March gained 116 points to close at 87.16 cents, eight points off the high of its 141-point range.

Volume slowed to an estimated 23,900 lots from 33,826 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 7,645 lots or 23%, EFP 72 lots and EFS 22 lots. Options volume totaled 7,110 calls and 5,819 puts.

Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for 2013-14 and 2012-13 came in about as expected at a combined 106,000 running bales during the week ended Aug. 1, up from 82,300 bales the week before.

New-crop sales of all cotton of 96,100 bales, up from 50,000 the previous week, plus a carryover of 953,900 bales of unshipped sales from 2012-13 boosted 2013-14 commitments to 3.446 million RB.

Net new-crop upland sales of 81,400 bales reflected gross sales of 99,100 bales and cancellations of 17,700 bales. Sales of 21,100 bales for Vietnam, 17,200 for Turkey, 10,400 for El Salvador, 8,100 for Mexico and 7,900 for Indonesia were partially offset by cancellations of 7,300 bales for China and 1,100 for Morocco.

Commitments started the new marketing year — which began Aug. 1 — 942,000 running bales or about 22% behind year-ago bookings when the carryover from the previous marketing season had totaled 1.246 million RB.

Cumulative sales amounted to about 31% of USDAΆs 2013-14 export forecast, compared with about 33% of the current 2012-13 estimate at the corresponding early point last season
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Outstanding optional origin sales carried over into 2013-14 from 2012-13 totaled 28,500 bales and included 14,600 bales for China, 13,600 bales for South Korea and 300 for Vietnam.

Old-crop shipments of all cotton before the marketing year ended on July 31 rose to 147,500 running bales from the prior full weekΆs 103,200 bales and brought 2012-13 exports to 12.676 million RB, roughly 226,000 running bales shy of the USDA estimate.

Upland shipments of 11.864 million RB were up 9% from the previous yearΆs 10,875,500 and Pima exports of 811,900 RB were up 41% from the prior seasonΆs 576,800. All-cotton shipments topped the prior yearΆs exports of 11.452 million RB by more than 11%.

Futures open interest expanded 11,186 lots Wednesday to 186,221, with DecemberΆs up 8,373 lots to 154,488 and MarchΆs up 2,439 lots to 23,394. Certificated stocks were unchanged at 62,803 bales.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index advanced 230 points Thursday morning to 93.45 cents. The premium to WednesdayΆs December futures settlement narrowed 34 points to 5.12 cents.

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