A wintry blast expected to interrupt harvesting on the West Texas Plains. Movement of modules to gins could be slowed or stalled. Informa said to have pegged the U.S. crop at 13.61 million bales.
Cotton futures rallied from a modest loss below lows of the prior two days to close with a slight gain at a three-session high finish Wednesday.
Most-active March settled up 44 points to 79.05 cents, above TuesdayΆs high and in the upper half of its 130-point range from down 41 points at 78.20 to up 89 points at 79.50 cents. May closed up 38 points to 79.52 cents.
Volume rose to an estimated 12,500 lots from 10,086 the previous session when spreads totaled 4,277 lots or 42%, EFP 74 lots and EFS 11 lots. Options volume totaled 2,790 calls and 707 puts.
A wintry blast packing periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected to move into the West Texas Plains by early Thursday, again interrupting the harvest. The cold will remain through early next week.
While the harvest has reached around 90% complete in the immediate Lubbock area, industry sources said, an estimated 20% or more remained on the stalk in most of the remainder of the High and Rolling Plains. Cotton in the Lamesa area south of Lubbock last week was 70% harvested and just over 50% ginned.
The arctic outbreak will spread throughout the region by early Friday, forecasters said, adding that thereΆs a potential for several inches of snow on a line on the High Plains from northwest of Morton in Cochran County to Silverton in Briscoe County.
Light ice accumulations will be possible throughout the Rolling Plains, with a wintry mix likely elsewhere. The coverage and amount of ice and snow remained uncertain, forecasters said.
Depending upon the amount of rain, ice and-or snow accumulations, the movement of modules of field-stored cotton to gins could be slowed or stalled. Most modules are covered with tarps, and that cotton shouldnΆt be adversely affected if the modules were properly built and located, observers said.
The effects of continued weathering of cotton remaining on the stalk would depend upon a variety of factors, including how soon producers could get back into the fields and under what conditions.
Ice and wind could pull some already-loosened cotton from the bur and put it on the ground. But cotton grown in this region is predominantly of tighter-boll, relatively stormproof-type varieties.
Meanwhile, Informa Economics, widely followed Memphis-based analytical firm, has estimated the U.S. crop at 13.61 million bales, sources said, up from USDAΆs November forecast of 13.11 million bales.
The USDA will update its production forecast as part of its monthly U.S. and world supply-demand estimates on Tuesday.
Informa projected yields at an average of 840 pounds per harvested acre, sources said, up from USDAΆs 808 pounds and the five-year average of 817 pounds. Yields averaged 887 pounds last season on a crop of 17.32 million bales.
Futures open interest gained 508 lots Tuesday to 156,967, with DecemberΆs down 86 lots to 287, MarchΆs down 147 lots to 110,609 and MayΆs up 323 lots to 24,253.
Certificated stocks declined 18,803 bales to 206,811. There were 4,273 newly certified bales, 23,076 bales decertified and none awaiting review. The major stopper of December deliveries is expected to decertify all that cotton and ship it against export commitments.
The Cotlook A Index of world values was unchanged Wednesday morning at 85.15 cents. The premium to TuesdayΆs March futures settlement narrowed a point to 6.54 cents.