DTN Cotton Close: Settles Modestly Lower

Export commitments stand at 66% of the USDA forecast and shipments at 21%. Adjusted world price rose. Cert stocks plunged 110,290 bales.

Cotton futures chopped on both sides of unchanged and finished modestly lower in thin, tight-range dealings Thursday.

Most-active March settled off 20 points to 78.85 cents, 12 ticks below where it opened and near the low of its 68-point range from down 34 points at 78.71 to up 34 points at 79.39 cents.

The May contract closed at 79.24 cents, just off the low of its 60-point range from 79.15 to 79.75 cents. Maturing December, which goes off the board Friday, dipped 20 points to settle at 77.82 cents.

Estimated volume fell to only 9,200 lots from 12,460 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 3,548 lots or 29% and EFP for eight lots. Options volume totaled 2,853 calls and 1,773 puts.

Net all-cotton export sales slipped to 253,800 running bales during the week ended Nov. 28 from 276,400 bales the previous week, marking the third consecutive week of decline. The week encompassed Thanksgiving Day.

The sales boosted 2013-14 commitments to 6.46 million RB, 66% of the USDA forecast. A year ago, commitments were 63% of final 2012-13 exports. Bookings were 1.309 million RB or around 16% behind year-ago commitments.

The USDA estimate is for exports to fall 20% from those of last season, constrained by supply availability and stiff competition.

All-cotton shipments edged up to 119,400 bales from 117,700 bales, boosting the total the season to 2.269 million RB. Cumulative shipments trailed year-ago exports by 388,000 bales or about 15%.

Shipments have reached 23% of the USDA estimate, compared with 21% of final exports at the corresponding point last season.

To achieve the USDA projection, shipments need to average roughly 230,000 running bales a week, while weekly sales of approximately 101,200 RB would match the forecast.

Meanwhile, the average the five lowest-price world growths for the Far East gained 55 points to 84.73 cents in the week ended Thursday, according to USDA, while the low U.S. quote landed there rose 60 points to 88.45 cents.

Thus the competitive price difference widened five points to 3.72 cents. The USDA announced the adjusted world price for the week ahead at 64.49 cents, up from this weekΆs 63.94 cents.

Futures open interest rose by 788 lots Wednesday to 157,755, with DecemberΆs down 86 lots to 201, MarchΆs up 519 lots to 111,128 and MayΆs up 360 lots to 24,613.

Certificated stocks plunged 110,290 bales to 96,521. A big drop had been expected at any time with the withdrawal of cotton taken on the December contract. There were 34 newly certified bales, 110,324 bales decertified and none awaiting review.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 40 points Thursday morning to 85.55 cents. The index premium to WednesdayΆs March futures settlement narrowed four points to 6.50 cents.

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