In Pakistan, cotton areas have gained strong support from the high cotton prices and good rainfall during the planting period. Moreover, yearly increase of 14.4% of cotton areas by July 5are also supportive to complete the target of cotton production in new season. In 2019/20 season, Pakistani cotton production is very likely to reach the high level of 2011/12 season.
1. 2019/20 Pakistani cotton production target improves largely
According to Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, Pakistani government sets the cotton areas at 2.895 million hectares in 2019/20 season, including 2.145 million hectares in Punjab, 0.64 million hectares in Sindh, and 0.11 million hectares in other regions. Besides, the production is targeted at 15 million bales (about 2.55 million tons), including 10.2 million bales of Punjab, 4.60 million bales of Sindh and 0.20 million bales of other regions. The production target is higher about 39.9% from last season.
| Pakistani cotton target in 2019/20 season | ||
| Region | Area | Production |
| million hectare | million bale | |
| Punjab | 2.145 | 10.2 |
| Sindh | 0.64 | 4.6 |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 0.01 | 0.0002 |
| Balochistan | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Total | 2.895 | 15.0002 |
Since 2011/12 season, when the cotton production hot a record high of 2.518 million tons, the cotton production has been constantly decreasing. In 2015/16 season, the production was only at 1.814 million tons, down about 28% compared with that in 2011/12 season. Later, despite of recovery of cotton production, the increment was limited. Will the target in new season realize?
2. Good price and favorable weather supports to reach the target
To show the influence of cotton prices on production more clearly, the average cotton prices are compared with the corresponding cotton production during the planting period. It showed that the change of cotton prices is consistent with the cotton production. Cotton prices have been rising for the four successive years and the average price has surpassed the level in 2011/12 season. Besides, taking the price and production change in 2006/07-2010/11 and 2014/15-2018/19, the cotton production may reach the level of 2011/12 this season.
In addition, during the planting period, the Pakistani cotton prices were relatively low compared with international cotton prices, stimulating domestic enterprises to choose local cotton, pepping up the domestic cotton prices somewhat and improving the growers’ enthusiasm.
According to Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, by July 5, the cotton areas have reached 2.659 million hectares in Punjab and Sindh, reaching 95.5% of the target, up 14.4% from the same period of last year. The higher cotton areas are supportive to reach the target of cotton production.
| Pakistani cotton planting progress (by July 5) | |||||
| Region (million hectare) | Target | Progress | Change | ||
| 2019/20 | 2019/20 | 2018/19 | Target completed | Yearly change | |
| Punjab (2019/6/1) | 2.145 | 2.044 | 1.877 | 95.3% | 8.9% |
| Sindh (2019/7/5) | 0.64 | 0.615 | 0.448 | 96.1% | 37.3% |
| Total | 2.785 | 2.659 | 2.325 | 95.5% | 14.4% |
Besides, in the first half year of 2019, the precipitation in Punjab has increased by 89.1mm to 133.2mm, and that in Sindh up by 29.5mm to 64.1mm. The favorable weather condition is also good for the growing of cotton.
To sum up, the good price and favorable weather condition gives strong support to reach the cotton target in 2019/20 season. In 2019/20 season, the cotton output is very likely to reach the high in 2011/12 season.
Source: ccfgroup.com