The week ending Friday, May 1 saw ICE cotton futures trade flat before launching Thursday in a limit up move which gyrated up to Friday’s weekly high (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The most active Jul’26 contract settled Friday at 84.19 cents per pound, up 1.99 on the day. The new crop Dec’26 settled at 84.56 on Friday. Chinese cotton prices and the A-Index of world cotton prices both rose slightly across the week.
Other ag futures markets followed various paths for the week. CBOT corn and soybean futures, as well as KC wheat, all trended higher before reversing slightly on Thursday. ICE WTI followed an upward stair-step pattern. The U.S. dollar index followed a similar pattern to oil except it tumbled Thursday to its weekly lows. Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.
Cotton-focused news this week included improved, if not unspectacular, U.S. export net sales through April 23. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments were stronger and on-track to hit USDA’s export target. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, very light to good demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. The supply question is resolved for the 2025 crop. As of March 1, NASS forecasted ginning of 99.5% of forecasted production as being ginned. Also, as of April 30, USDA AMS counted 99.8% of forecasted U.S. production as having been classed.
Through Thursday, April 30, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mostly higher from the previous day. Coupled with the flat-to-higher futures settlements, this week had the appearance of new buying. The regular Tuesday speculative snapshot represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for April 28 saw mixed positioning. Specifically, there were 4,827 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs, week over week. This was mostly offset by 3,947 fewer (covered) hedge fund shorts compared to last week. The index fund net long position expanded by 3,460 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. First, the rising certified stock levels in early 2026, and again in April, could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) are at a relatively low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.
Source: TAMU