The week ending Friday, April 17 saw ICE cotton futures continue their upward march  (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The most active Jul’26 contract settled FRiday at 79.82 cents per pound, while the new crop Dec’26 settled at 80.50.  Chinese cotton prices declined at first before settling higher, while the A-Index of world cotton prices rose early in the week before resetting and leveling off.

Other ag futures markets followed various paths for the week.  CBOT corn futures were flat, then up-trended, then finished the week in another flat pattern.  CBOT soybeans did the opposite by down-trending early before flattening out. KC wheat futures followed more of an upward stair-step pattern across the week. ICE WTI crude oil futures and the U.S. Dollar Index both descended and bottomed.  The major dollar influence appeared to be fluctuating expectations of Middle East hostilities. Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.

Cotton-focused news this week included disappointing U.S. export net sales  through April 9.  Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments slipped slightly. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, very light to good demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. The supply question is resolved for the 2025 crop.  As of March 1, NASS forecasted ginning of 99.5% of forecasted production as being ginned. Also, as of April 16, USDA AMS counted 99.6% of forecasted U.S. production as having been classed.

Through Thursday, April 16, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mostly declining.  Combined with mostly higher ICE futures settlements, this pattern had the appearance of short covering earlier in the week.  Indeed, the weekly snapshot as of Tuesday April 14, saw various forms of  long positioning. First, there were 3,695 additional hedge fund longs, week over week.  Second, there were 12,462 fewer (covered) hedge fund shorts compared to last week.  And finally there was a 4,107 contract expansion in the index fund net long position.  All combined this was a price supporting speculative repositioning.

The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. First, the rising certified stock levels in early 2026, and again in April, could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) are at a relatively low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side.  Having said that, unfixed call sales continue to rise from their prior lower levels.

For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.