All healthy markets fluctuate, and as a result, many U.S. producers may be rotating planting other crops in place of their usual cotton for the upcoming 2013 season. According to the annual cotton grower acreage survey, cotton numbers across the country may be decreasing by around 21% this coming year.
In 2012, the final planted cotton acreage number was 12.36 million acres, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The projected 2013 total planted acreage number is just 9.73 million acres. If the projections hold true through planting season, this will be the second consecutive year that cotton acreage has decreased. The survey indicated that producers are citing rising input costs and dwindling cotton prices for the shift to other crops.
The 2013 cotton projection for our Southwest region is still 5.4 million acres of cotton, which represents 58% of total U.S. production. Although Texas producers are still maintaining strong concerns about the lingering drought.
The Southeast region is said to represent roughly 23% of the country's cotton acres for the upcoming planting season. Georgia will come in a strong second place in terms of cotton acreage by state. Comparing 2013 numbers to 2012, Georgia is projected to plant 1.13 million acres this year, which will be slightly down from 1.29 million acres of cotton in 2012. Cotton is a highly sought after rotational crop with peanuts in Georgia.
The Mid south potentially will see the most significant reduction in cotton acres, with Mississippi anticipating growing it's smallest cotton crop in history at 265,830 acres. That number is down by about 50% total planted acres compared
to the 2012 season.
California and the Far West region of the cotton belt will once again represent the smallest percentage of cotton production for the country. About 255,830 acres for California will account for about 5% of total U.S. cotton acreage for the upcoming planting season.
This all according to the cotton grower acreage survey which is taken from October through early December and released in January of the next crop year. These numbers will be updated as planting approaches, and two more surveys will be conducted to maintain the most current cotton planted acre projections for 2013. The National Cotton Council releases survey results in February, and the USDA acreage estimates are usually released in March.
Factors still affecting producer crop decisions include a bearish peanut market, making cotton more popular in the Southeast. But the opposite is the case for the Far West and Mid south, where corn and soybean prices may push producers to plant those options. Growing interest in sorghum for the coming year may be the biggest competitor for cotton acreage here at home in the Southwest growing region and the High Plains of Texas. However advances in cotton crop drought tolerance and the semi-arid climate of West Texas always drive cotton's popularity.
2013 cotton prices still could see large changes, however, especially depending on Chinese cotton reserves this winter. If the country stockpiles their cotton, a resulting bump in both cotton prices and U.S. total planted acres could increase
significantly. And of course rainfall amounts this spring will also drive producer decisions when planting season arrives. We'll keep you informed as the 2013 cotton acreage projections are updated.
