Insights

• ICE cotton futures rose slightly as crude oil prices eased but posted weekly gains, while optimism over US-China trade talks lent support.
• December futures settled at 64.20 cents per pound, up 0.13 cent, though weekly moves were limited.
• Stable CPI data reinforced hopes for a rate cut, while analysts noted constrained momentum but hinted at a possible seasonal bottom forming.

ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher as the market focused on US cotton exports. Although crude oil prices eased, they managed to post weekly gains, which supported US cotton. Optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal also provided a positive backdrop. A slightly higher-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading reinforced hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

ICE December cotton futures settled at 64.20 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents, though the contract eased 8 points on a weekly basis. The trading range for the December contract was 113 points, fluctuating between 63.65 and 64.78 cents per pound.

Other months closed with minor changes—ranging from unchanged to 8 points higher for the day, and from 54 points lower to 13 points higher for the week. The US Dollar Index was little changed after inflation data showed consumer prices rose less than expected, maintaining expectations of a rate cut next week.

Total volume reached 31,106 contracts, with 28,169 cleared the previous day. The week’s average daily volume stood at 34,799 contracts. ICE-certified deliverable No. 2 cotton stocks remained unchanged at 17,552 bales as of October 23. Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown entered its 20th day, delaying the USDA’s monthly WASDE report.

Analysts were divided—some suggested the seasonal bottom might be in place, while others cautioned that the narrow weekly ranges signalled limited momentum in nearby contracts.

Although crude oil prices fell on Friday, they still recorded weekly gains, making polyester—a cotton substitute—more expensive and lending mild support to cotton demand. Market analysts said that rising international crude oil prices this week provided additional support to ICE cotton prices.

The agricultural market also tracked developments in Sino-US economic and trade talks, with optimism about a potential demand recovery. If Chinese buyers resume purchasing US cotton, ICE prices could strengthen further.

On Friday, ICE cotton for December 2025 settled at 64.20 cents per pound (up 0.13 cent); cash cotton at 61.70 cents (up 0.13 cent); the March 2026 contract at 65.71 cents (up 0.04 cent); the May 2026 contract at 66.95 cents (up 0.03 cent); the July 2026 contract at 68.12 cents (up 0.03 cent); and the October 2026 contract at 68.10 cents (up 0.08 cent).