• India has suspended its 11% cotton import duty for five months to help textile manufacturers secure higher-quality fiber.

• The move comes as the global cotton market heads toward a supply deficit, with production expected to fall and consumption to rise.

• African exporters, including Benin, Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, and Burkina Faso, could benefit from additional demand from India.

India has suspended the 11% import duty on cotton for five months, through October 30, 2026, in a move that could provide additional support for global cotton prices.

Announced by the Indian government on May 30, the measure aims to help textile mills and exporters cope with production cost pressures and strong international demand for textile products. The government says the temporary tariff relief will make it easier for manufacturers to access higher-quality cotton, particularly export-oriented textile producers, at a time when global supply chains remain under strain.

According to Vinay Kotak, president of the Cotton Association of India, quoted by Reuters on May 31, the duty suspension could allow imports of about 600,000 bales of cotton, or 130,636 tons, mainly for textile mills that require cleaner and less contaminated fiber.

While the expected volumes remain modest in the context of the global market, New Delhi’s decision comes at a time when supply and demand fundamentals are already supporting cotton prices.

The global cotton market is expected to move into deficit, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In its latest report, published on May 12, the USDA forecasts global cotton production for the 2026-27 season at about 116 million bales, or 25.2 million tons, down 5% from the previous season. At the same time, global consumption is expected to rise by 1.33% to 121.7 million bales, or 26.5 million tons, the highest level in six years.

The gap between production and consumption is expected to reduce global inventories by 7% year over year to 71.8 million bales, or about 15.6 million tons. Lower stock levels would leave the market with a smaller buffer against supply and demand shocks, increasing sensitivity to changes in production or consumption. Against that backdrop, the USDA expects cotton prices to strengthen in the United States, the world's second-largest cotton exporter after Brazil.

According to the agency, the average U.S. farm price for the 2026-27 marketing year is forecast at 73 cents per pound, up 10 cents from the previous year.

A Factor That Could Support Demand

By lowering the cost of imported cotton, India’s latest measure could modestly increase purchases from international suppliers and provide additional support for global demand. Industry participants also believe imports could rise further depending on weather conditions and the outlook for India's next harvest.

Cotton production in India depends heavily on rainfall, and any disruption to the monsoon season linked to the El Niño weather pattern could reduce output from the crop scheduled for planting beginning in June. “In that scenario, the government could extend the duty-free import window beyond October, as it did last year,” Reuters reported, citing a cotton trader who requested anonymity.

India imported nearly $2.2 billion worth of cotton in 2025, according to data compiled by Trade Map. Its leading suppliers included Brazil, the United States, Australia, China, and several African countries. African exporters accounted for about 20% of India's cotton imports, representing roughly $453 million in sales. The continent's main suppliers included Mali, Egypt, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. Among West Africa’s leading cotton exporters are Mali, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Burkina Faso.

For foreign suppliers, India’s temporary suspension of import duties creates a limited but tangible opportunity to increase sales into one of the world’s largest textile markets, particularly for exporters capable of meeting the quality standards required by local spinning mills.

Stéphanas Assocle