By: Jim Steadman
The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is raised 200,000 bales, to 15.0 million, based on the pace of recent sales and shipments. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.3 million bales, equivalent to 29% of total disappearance. The marketing year price received by producers is projected to average 68 cents per pound, a reduction of 1 cent from last month.
Lower global beginning stocks this month result in lower projected 2017/18 ending stocks despite higher world production and lower consumption. World beginning stocks are 900,000 bales lower this month, largely attributable to historical revisions for Brazil and Australia. World production is about 250,000 bales higher, as a larger Brazilian crop more than offsets a decline for Sudan. Consumption is about 400,000 bales lower, as lower consumption in India, Indonesia and some smaller countries more than offsets Vietnam’s increase. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are nearly 600,000 bales lower in total this month, as reductions for Brazil, Sudan, the United States, and Australia more than offset an increase for Pakistan.