The February 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has been released by USDA. Here’s the monthly cotton summary:
The U.S. cotton estimates for 2019/20 are unchanged, except for a 1 cent-per pound reduction in the season-average upland farm price to 62 cents, 8.3 cents lower than in 2018/19.
The 2019/20 world cotton forecasts include a 2.5 million bale increase in ending stocks, driven by both larger production and lower consumption. A 1 million bale decline in China’s expected consumption is the largest single change this month – consumption is lower despite the positive impact of the U.S.-China trade agreement, due in part to the negative economic effects of the novel coronavirus outbreak.
Consumption is also projected lower in Vietnam but higher in Pakistan and Turkey. Production in Brazil in 2018/19 is revised upward by 480,000 bales, reflecting higher production in Mato Grosso. Pakistan, Brazil and Tanzania production in 2019/20 is revised upward.
Total production changes this month come to a 1.3 million bale global increase, while total consumption changes net to a 1.2 million bale reduction.