The initial World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for 2021 has been released by USDA. Here’s this month’s cotton summary:
The U.S. 2020/21 cotton outlook shows higher exports, and lower production and ending stocks this month. Production is lowered nearly 1 million bales to 15.0 million, led by a 500,000-bale decline in Texas. U.S. mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, but exports are raised 250,000 bales as rebounding world demand helps sustain a strong export pace.
With lower production and higher demand, 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks are 1.1 million bales lower relative to last month, at 4.6 million bales or 26% of use. The upland season-average price received by U.S. farmers is projected 3 cents higher this month, at 68 cents per pound.
The largest changes in the global 2020/21 cotton outlook this month are lower production and ending stocks, led by changes in the United States. World production is forecast more than 1.0 million bales lower, with non-U.S. reductions including Pakistan, Mali and Argentina. Outside the United States, Pakistan’s 200,000-bale decline is the largest change, with smaller upward revisions for Greece, Australia and Turkey. Projected world consumption in 2020/21 is 100,000 bales higher this month, as a 500,000-bale increase for China and a 200,000-bale increase for Turkey are partly offset by reductions for Indonesia, Vietnam, the United States and some smaller countries. Similarly, a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports is partly offset by a 200,000-bale decline for Indonesia.
World trade is projected 350,000 bales higher, with Australia and Mexico exports up by smaller amounts than the United States, and lower exports projected for Mali. World ending stocks in 2020/21 are 1.2 million bales lower this month, at 96.3 million bales – 3.0 million bales lower than the year before.