USDA has released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for July 2021. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:
The U.S. 2021/22 cotton projections show higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. While the June 30 Acreage report shows 300,000 fewer planted acres for U.S. cotton than NASS’s previous survey, a rainfall-driven reduction in projected Texas abandonment means U.S. harvested area is projected 9% higher. While 2021/22 production is 800,000 bales higher, consumption is unchanged, and exports and ending stocks are each projected 400,000 bales higher.
The upland cotton farm price for 2021/22 is unchanged at 75 cents per pound, while the 2020/21 price is reduced one half cent to 66.5 cents per pound.
World 2021/22 ending stocks of cotton are projected 1.6 million bales lower than in June as largely offsetting changes in production and consumption do little to offset lower estimated beginning stocks. Beginning stocks are 1.5 million bales lower, largely due to reduced 2020/21 Brazilian and Indian production and higher Indian consumption.
World production in 2021/22 is projected about 500,000 bales higher this month as a larger U.S. crop more than offsets a 300,000-bale decline for Pakistan. Consumption is slightly more than 600,000 bales higher largely due to an increase for India. World trade is projected 670,000 bales lower, with China’s imports 1 million bales lower and Brazil’s exports 1.1 million bales lower.