USDA has released its May 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:
For 2023/24, despite an expected 2.5-million-acre year-to-year decrease in U.S. area planted to cotton, the crop is expected to rise with abandonment projected at about half of the 47% rate realized in 2022/23. Production is forecast at 15.5 million bales, based on 11.26 million planted acres as indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report, but harvested area is expected to rise 1.4 million acres to 8.71 million. While abandonment is projected lower than the year before, it is still expected to be above average due to limited precipitation to date in the Southwest, and the U.S. yield is expected to fall from the record high reached in 2022/23. With production forecast 1 million bales higher, total supplies are nearly 800,000 higher.
Exports are also expected to rise – up 900,000 bales as world trade rebounds – and U.S. mill use is expected to rise 100,000 bales. At 3.3 million bales, 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks are projected 200,000 bales lower than the year before. The marketing year average upland farm price is projected at 78 cents per pound, down 5% from the previous year.
For 2022/23, U.S. cotton production is reduced 212,000 bales from last month to 14.5 million bales. Exports are 400,000 bales higher as the pace of shipments strengthens, and ending stocks are estimated 600,000 bales lower, at 3.5 million. The projected season-average price is unchanged.
Global supplies in 2023/24 are projected above a year earlier, as higher beginning stocks more than offset a 664,000-bale decrease in production. Consumption is expected to rebound, up 6% year-to-year, and ending stocks are expected to fall slightly. Production is expected to fall less than 1% from the year before in 2023/24 as global area falls slightly and global average yield is little changed. Lower harvested area is expected in China, India, Turkey, and Australia, partly offset by increases in the United States and West Africa’s Franc Zone.
The rebound in global cotton spinning that began late in calendar year 2022 is expected to continue into 2023/24, with world economic activity rising slightly in calendar year 2024 according to the International Monetary Fund. Like consumption, world trade is expected to rebound to about the same level as in 2021/22.
The global 2022/23 estimates show higher production and lower use compared with the previous month, and projected ending stocks are more than 600,000 bales higher. Uzbekistan’s crop is increased 500,000 bales – and China’s crop by 200,000 – based on reported gin output. Mexico’s crop is raised by 180,000 bales based on government data. Historical revisions for Burma, extending back about a decade, included a 275,000-bale reduction in 2022/23 production. Consumption is forecast about 540,000 bales lower this month as declines in Bangladesh, Burma, and Turkmenistan offset increases in India and Vietnam.