Price action: March cotton fell 22 points to 71.27 cents, ending the session above the 20-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures ended modestly lower, despite U.S. dollar weakness and solid gains in crude oil futures as sliding equities and lingering technical resistance curbed buyer interest. The marketplace is likely to remain somewhat subdued ahead of updated economic forecasts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Wednesday, Thursday’s OPEC meeting and the Labor Department’s Employment data, due out on Friday. Earlier today, the Labor Department reported job openings rose 5% to 7.7 million, up from 7.4 million in September in its October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report (JOLTS), suggesting jobs could pick up in the coming months.
Key cotton growing areas around the globe look to be faring well, with favorably advancing crop maturation in northern India and Pakistan and good conditions in Southern India. World Weather Inc. reports recent rain and that which is coming in the next week to ten days in Australia’s eastern dryland crop region of New South Wales and Queensland will improve planting, emergence and establishment. Production potential has improved with the rains, which should continue. Rains in northern Argentina periodically through the coming two weeks will be good for planting, however, Formosa may be dry and warm for a while, according to the forecaster.
Technical analysis: March cotton spent the session trading within Monday’s range, limited by the 20-day moving average of 71.18 cents as well as the 100- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at 72.06 cents and 72.33 cents. Conversely, initial support continues to serve at the 10-day moving average of 70.65 cents, and is backed by support at 69.63 cents, 68.88 cents and the Nov. 19 low of 68.40 cents. A move above initial resistance will face a further technical battle at 72.99 cents and 73.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.
Πηγή: profarmer.com