Swaths of heavy rain termed possible on Wednesday on the Texas Plains. Trade reported still looking for big U.S. crop. Mexico’s crop forecast at 1.12 million bales.
Cotton futures finished down five to 21 points in 2017-18 marketing year contracts Tuesday, with benchmark December settling on a fractional loss after bouncing off a new low since Aug. 22.
December closed with the smallest current-crop loss at 67.52 cents, near the low of its 119-point range from down 17 points at 67.40 to up 102 points at 68.59 cents. March lost the most, closing at 66.81 cents, just off the low of its 107-point range from 66.78 to 67.85 cents.
Scale-down mill fixations offered support. Unpriced December on-call mill positions outweighed those of producers by a ratio of 1.7:1, the latest call data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.
Volume slowed to an estimated 19,368 lots from 23,620 the previous session when spreads accounted for 7,620 lots or 32%, EFS 11 lots and EFP 7 lots. Options volume increased to 7,329 lots (5,026 calls and 2,303 puts) from 3,821 lots (2,038 calls and 1,783 puts).
Cloudy skies returned to the Texas High Plains and forecasts rated chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Lubbock area at 50% Tuesday night, rising to 70% on Wednesday and lingering at 40% on Thursday.
Swaths of heavy rain will be possible on Wednesday, forecasts indicate. Partly sunny skies are expected on Friday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms that night. Open weather then is forecast through Monday.
Temperatures at Lubbock through Sunday are forecast from the low 70s to middle 80s for daytime highs and middle 60s to low 50s for nighttime lows. Averages for September were 84.7 degrees for the highs and 59.9 degrees for the lows, compared with 84.5 and 58.8 for long-term averages.
The High Plains crop, projected at a record 5.695 million bales on the basis of conditions around Sept. 1, needs plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures to facilitate fiber maturity following last week’s cool, rainy weather.
Elsewhere, rain chances are expected to return this weekend and extend into early next week in the Southeast, including Georgia, where cotton rated good to excellent improved seven percentage points to 48% for the week ended Sunday.
Despite hurricanes and other crop adversities, the trade is generally still looking for a big U.S. output. U.S. upland production last month was forecast at 21 million bales, up 27% from last season and the largest in 12 years. The USDA’s updated crop estimate is due Oct. 12.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s 2017-18 cotton production is forecast at 1.116 million bales by the U.S. agricultural attach in Mexico City, up from 765,000 bales last season, on increased planting areas.
The post projected Mexico’s cotton imports — nearly all of which come from the United States — at 925,000 bales, down from 1.02 million bales in 2016-17. Domestic consumption is estimated at 1.825 million bales, up from 1.775 million last season. The post expects ending stocks to rise to 527,000 bales from 461,000 in 2016-17.
Cotton in Mexico is grown throughout the year during two seasons. The main growing season is spring-summer (planted from April-July and harvested August-January). Then there is the fall-winter crop (planted November-January and harvested mainly in April and May).
Futures open interest declined 1,761 lots to 231,203 on Monday, with October’s down 10 lots to 99, December’s down 1,197 lots to 131,567 and March’s down 767 lots to 68,578. Cert stocks dropped 33 bales to 3,827. There were 102 newly certified bales and 135 bales decertified.
Πηγή: Agfax