Favorable weather in the Delta and Southeast may have countered concerns about rains and cool temperatures on the Texas Plains. China’s cotton imports for the year through August rose by 36% from a year earlier. Potential stockpile buying talked.
Cotton futures couldn’t hold onto a modest follow-through upside probe and finished down 38 to 71 points Tuesday in another lightly traded session.
December lost the most, settling at 68.75 cents, in the lower quarter of its 123-point range from up 27 points at 69.73 to down 96 points at 68.50 cents. It climbed above highs of the prior three sessions to match Wednesday’s high and held on the downswing 17 points above Monday’s low.
March dropped 65 points to close at 67.89 cents, remaining within the 101-point range established by early morning from 68.75 to 67.74 cents. Maturing October didn’t trade.
Volume slipped to an estimated 14,095 lots from 15,701 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 4,253 lots or 27% and EFP 54 lots. Options volume rose to 7,906 lots (4,686 calls and 3,220 puts) from 1,994 lots (868 calls and 1,126 puts).
Favorable dry and mild conditions expected through the next week in the Delta and Southeast may have countered concerns about rains, cool temperatures and lack of sunshine stalling crop maturity in the Texas High and Rolling Plains.
Widespread rains were expected to continue across the Plains the next two days. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches were forecast to be common with areas of 3 to 5 inches in mainly the Rolling Plains.
Temperatures at Lubbock the rest of the week are expected to range from the mid-60s to low-70s for daytime highs and mostly the mid-50s for nighttime lows. Mostly sunny skies and a high of 78 degrees are forecast for Sunday.
On the international scene, China’s cotton imports rose 20% last month from a year earlier to 83,913 metric tons (385,405 480-pound bales), official data showed. Imports for the calendar year rose by 36% to 811,843 tons (3.729 million bales).
The USDA earlier this month raised its estimate of China’s imports for the 2017-18 cotton marketing year ending July 31 by 100,000 bales to 5.1 million, compared with last season’s 5.03 million.
Considerable conjecture has circulated about potential stockpile purchases by China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, in the months ahead following completion of the current round of daily auctions at the end of September.
The replenishment buying supposedly would involve both domestic and foreign cotton supplies. China’s imports in 2016-17 remained quota-constrained and reserve sales injected some 14.3 million bales into private supplies.
Yet the U.S. market share in China recovered from the low level seen in 2015-16. And U.S. exports are expected to figure prominently in 2017-18, accounting for about 34% of U.S. shipments to foreign customers.
In contrast to a 3-million-bale increase to 92.5 million foreseen in global stocks this season, China’s carryout is projected to fall 9 million bales to 39.5 million, lowest since 2011-12. China then would hold about 43% of global stocks, compared with 60% during the 2013-15 seasons.
Futures open interest declined 1,156 lots to 234,941 on Monday, with December’s down 1,172 lots to 133,078 and March’s down 31 lots to 71,425. Certificated stocks were unchanged at 1,772 bales.
Πηγή: Agfax