The world is racing against time. On the 5th of November, the name of the new occupant of the White House will be known. Torn between the Unpredictable Donald Trump, who is still leading in the polls, and the Unknown Kamala Harris. Faced with this uncertainty, some countries are taking the least unfavorable position possible:
- - Ukraine is trying a gamble by attacking more and more targets on Russian territory with Western weapons, convinced that the arrival of the Republican will tip the balance in favor of Russia;
- - the Israeli army and secret services, after the targeted executions, have crushed Hezbolla in an unthinkable coup that has led to the explosion and serious injury of its leading fighters. The whole region is now just a few explosions away from an all-out war, which should lead Iran to invest and become directly involved in the conflict in an attempt to save its affiliates
- - China is engaging in an economic war with the West so as not to be without arguments in the face of American interests, which are likely to become more radical once again
- - ...
It is difficult to remain calm in such an environment, where the military and the economy will once again collide. As the saying goes, "Sell at the sound of the gun - buy at the sound of the bugle". Stock markets are shaking, but safe havens, led by the dollar, are strengthening. Although the Fed cut interest rates massively last week, it will be tricky to cut them again in the emerging climate of war.
After the summer weakness in prices, many commodities are recovering, particularly cotton. It only took a few sessions to turn the market around and provoke an exodus of investment funds, which had to reverse their short positions.
Demand has been firm on the Indian subcontinent, which is continuing to buy at a steady pace, while supplies of US cottons have become scarcer due to fears of weather damage. Harvests in India and Pakistan continue to be revised downwards, while China is continuing to buy Brazilian cottons.
Technically, we continue to believe that the market should move slightly above 75 Usc/Lb for the December 2024 in the coming weeks, without reaching the highs seen last season. This level should satisfy all the players in our sector over the coming weeks.
Πηγή: Mambo