Unperturbed, the litany of bad news continues to strike at consciences and push back the limits of the possible.
Europeans are increasingly alone in their support for Ukraine, raising the spectre of a possible defeat with incalculable consequences for the global balance. Not yet elected, but already throwing his weight around in international relations, Donald Trump is imposing his views and the future cessation of American support.
Ukraine's future accession to the European Union also raises fears of an imbalance in the Common Agricultural Policy in the face of a major agricultural country. Upheavals are looming on every continent, including Africa, where ECOWAS and perhaps tomorrow UMEOA are greatly weakened by the resignation of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
The economic slowdown, not to say recession, is punctuating an already gloomy picture, and is taking its toll on household morale.
Against this gloomy backdrop, the cotton market remains imperturbably buoyant, despite anemic demand.
The exit of the March 2024 maturity is very hectic, as the volumes of contracts traded in each session are among the highest ever recorded on the New York ICE. The real danger is that all spinners who have not yet fixed their contracts for this maturity will find themselves "stuck", as they will be forced to fix at levels that the physical markets do not allow, or to postpone to an equally uncertain May maturity.
The reduction in the area sown to cereals, particularly corn, in favor of cotton, could spell the end of this trend, unless the USDA takes action at the end of March....
The other problem is the dizzying rise in production costs, whether in the USA, Brazil or India. Seeds, plant protection products and fertilizers are at very high levels, adding to galloping inflation. How can we consider planting without attractive price prospects?
For this harvest, sales are multiplying in the northern hemisphere at high fixed prices, particularly in West Africa, where all cotton growers came to market last week. Even if basis have been largely revised downwards, prices are still very attractive for growers.
Spinning mills are still lagging behind this trend, still very hesitant given the lackluster yarn prices and low order books.
It's hard to say how long this situation will last, but the 97 USC/Lb level on the May 24 deadline is a decisive first step in the weeks ahead.
Indian cotton has become very attractive, as have Brazilian "recaps" and the new Australian crop, whose fundamentals have been heavily revised.
In this somewhat surreal climate, we're going to have to stay focused on fundamentals, with the financial market focused solely on the US crop.
Πηγή: Mambo