All those who thought the WTO was moribund have had it.
The organisation is still moving, but for how long? It's hard to say, as the days of happy globalisation appear to be numbered.
For a week, Abu Dhabi will be the epicentre of world trade, where people will once again be talking about rainbow boxes, while inward-looking attitudes prevail on every continent.
Two years ago, the invasion of Ukraine led us to believe that a blitzkrieg was possible, whereas the conflict is getting bogged down day by day. While announcing for the first time a probably underestimated number of Ukrainian victims, the leak of documents concerning last summer's counter-attack was admitted. It is hard to see an end to the conflict in the weeks and months ahead. Despite the relative failure of the first wave of economic retaliation, the United States has once again stepped up sanctions against Russia to intensify the pressure and try to influence the course of events.
Attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea continue. Last week, a ship carrying 40,000 tonnes of fertiliser was targeted by missiles, and could be sunk, with a major risk of chemical pollution.
On the economic front, after the intense tensions caused by the uninterrupted rise in key interest rates, it is now time for a pause, not to say a relaxation. Inflation appears more under control and stock markets are soaring from record to record under the impetus of the "Artificial Intelligence" syndrome. The Nvidia group has seen its market capitalisation rise by $273 billion in just a few days, sending all the tech counters into a frenzy.
Commodity markets were mixed, with cocoa, sugar and cotton on fire and cereals sinking to new lows. The release of Mars 2024 on the ICE, in cotton, took place at levels unhoped for just a few weeks ago.
However, our market is also mixed:
- - Demand is picking up again for textile products, particularly in Bangladesh, where we are seeing record exports.
- - The US market is contracting. Chinese, Vietnamese and Indian exports to this destination are in sharp decline. But with inflation under control, consumers in this part of the world should be able to return.
- - The sharp fall in cereal prices is leading us to expect a decline in the area sown to cotton, in both the USA and Brazil (now the world's two leading exporters), which should rapidly weigh on prices.
The agricultural crisis in Europe is putting the notion of cost price back at the centre of all debates. How can we guarantee farmers a minimum price when prices are set at a global level on the stock markets? Such a system is difficult to envisage. The cost price of cotton has risen steadily but has no influence on New York stock market prices.
Our market should continue to erode as the Ramadan holidays approach.
Πηγή: Mambo