The confusion and lack of visibility the world is experiencing are a reminder, as Aragon said, that "there is no light without shadow". Tomorrow's world will be born of today's chaos. We thought that September 11th, the attack on the Capitol or the pandemic had sealed the foundations of the 21st century. Clearly, this is not the case.
Despite the Russian authorities' blissful optimism about developments in the war in Ukraine, no one can yet predict the outcome of the conflict. Although the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed to move the balance of power, oil and gas prices are losing ground and should limit optimism. Indeed, OPEC's room for manoeuvre is now narrow after the latest production cuts. Saudi Arabia itself is suffering a recession as a result of lower prices and production.
Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is entering its sixth week, and so far, all attempts to extend the conflict have been in vain. Despite pressure from international public opinion, no ceasefire is in sight, as the hostages have still not been released.
For many, the forthcoming American elections remain the main catalyst for the world's future. Indeed, the re-election of D. Trump at the top of all opinion polls instils in everyone's mind, a radical change to come on all burning issues, in barely a year's time.
It's a safe bet that this prospect has enabled meetings between Presidents Xi and Biden over the past week to lead to the beginnings of a more constructive dialogue. It has to be said that the signal sent out by the collapse of Ali Baba's share price (linked to the shortage of computer chips) is enough to worry China's leaders.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is celebrating the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle, with the dollar losing ground against all currencies...
It's hardly surprising that cotton is taking a break in such a context, even though the fundamentals remain worrying:
- - Drought in Mato Grosso is prompting growers to switch from soybeans to cotton for Safra and Safrinha. Brazil is set to become by far the world's largest cotton producer and exporter. At the same time, it is likely that the United States will continue to decline. If this is the case, will the market structure with a single financial market in New York be able to maintain itself?
- - China has completed its sales of reserve cotton and is replenishing its strategic stocks week by week.
- - Global consumption is totally anaemic and many are wondering whether it can pick up again in the coming months?
- - Speculation on the NY ICE turned bearish in historically high trading volume on the settlement of the December 2023.
Against this backdrop, the attitude of banks like Citi raises questions. How can we understand financial institutions taking speculative physical positions by supplying the LME (London Metal Exchange)?
Did you say Shadow?
Πηγή: Mambo