Through Friday, March, the most active ICE May cotton futures contract came in for a gentle landing in the lower 64 cent range (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). Chinese cotton prices weakened across the week after peaking last week at over a dollar per pound. The A-Index of world cotton prices was similarly flat-to-lower this week.
Other ag futures markets tracked a similar pattern across the week. CBOT corn and soybeans, along with KC wheat futures, all traded sideways for the first half of the week before trending upward. ICE WTI crude oil futures rose steadily over the entire week, presumably influenced by Middle Eastern tensions. In contrast, the U.S. Dollar Index followed a big zig zag from flat-to-higher, then lower, then recovering higher. Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.
Cotton-focused news included weak U.S. export sales for the week ending February 26. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, depending on the region, as well as very light to good demand. The supply question is resolving for the 2025 crop. As of February 1, NASS forecasted ginning of 98% of forecasted production being ginned. As of March 5, USDSA AMS counted 99% of forecasted U.S. production as having been classed.
Through Thursday, March 5, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest mostly decreased compared to the previous session. In combination with mostly lower price settlements across the week, this had the appearance of long liquidation. However, for the week ending Tuesday March 3, there was mixed spec positioning (more hedge fund shorts, but even more hedge fund new longs, and a shrinkage of the index fund net long positios).
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market. First, the rising certified stock levels in early 2026 could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. Second, it remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) are at an historically low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. Having said that, unfixed call sales rose a bit during the week ending March 5.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.
Πηγή: TAMU