The week ending Friday, May 8 saw ICE cotton futures trade in a sideways gyration (see chart above of Jul’26 prices courtesy of Barchart.com). The most active Jul’26 contract settled at 84.73 cents per pound, while the new crop Dec’26 settled at 85.46 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices came back from holiday on a high note, while the A-Index of world cotton prices across the week.
Other ag futures markets followed various paths for the week ending May 7. CBOT corn and KC wheat both started the week in a sideways gyration before tumbling into a down-trend. In contrast, CBOT soybeans started the week in an uptrend, downshifted, and traded flat through Thursday. ICE WTI and the U.S. dollar index both started the week flat-to-higher, then tumbled, and finished in a lower sideways gyration. Weakness in both markets was attributed to rising expectations of an improving Middle East situation.
Cotton-focused news this week included weaker U.S. export net sales as of April 30. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments were still on-track to hit USDA’s export target. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, very light to good demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. The supply question is resolved for the 2025 crop. As of March 1, NASS forecasted ginning of 99.5% of forecasted production as being ginned. Also, as of April 30, USDA AMS counted 99.8% of forecasted U.S. production as having been classed.
Through Thursday, April 30, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed higher and lower compared to the previous day. The biggest change was Wednesday’s 11,200 contract decline in open interest. Coupled with Wednesday’s lower price settlements, the mid-week session appear to involve long liquidation. But prior to that, the regular Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for May 5) saw long positioning. Specifically, there were 8,196 more hedge fund longs, week over week. This was reinforced by 4,781 fewer (covered) hedge fund shorts compared to last week. Lastly, the index fund net long position expanded by 1,468 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The rising certified stock levels in early 2026, and again in April, could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) have been at a relatively low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. But more recently, unfixed call sales have been stabilizing/rising (see red line in the chart below). This is bringing them more into balance with unfixed call purchases, and contributing to futures buying.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.
Πηγή: TAMU