The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is raised 250,000 bales, to 15.75 million, based on the pace of recent sales and shipments.
Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.9 million bales, equivalent to 22 percent of total disappearance. The marketing year price received by upland cotton producers is projected to average 68 cents per pound, a reduction of 1 cent from last month.
With lower global 2020/21 beginning stocks this month—combined with slightly lower production and higher consumption—ending stocks are 1.1 million bales lower, while projected trade is more than 900,000 bales higher. Largely driven by revised consumption in Vietnam for the previous year, 2020/21 beginning stocks are estimated 427,000 bales lower than in March.
Projected production is 276,000 bales lower than a month earlier, led by declines in Australia and Turkmenistan, and rising domestic textile demand in China accounts for much of the 387,000-bale increase in projected 2020/21 world cotton consumption.
World trade is raised 935,000 bales to its highest projected level in eight years, with China’s projected imports up 750,000 bales from last month, and Bangladesh’s up 200,000 bales. Higher exports are now expected from Brazil, the United States, and Egypt.