The most significant revision to this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates is a 500,000-bale increase in 2017/18 exports, to 16.0 million bales, due to above-average late-season shipments. U.S. ending stocks are now forecast at 4.2 million bales in 2017/18, and 4.7 million bales in 2018/19, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 25 percent.
The projected range of the marketing-year-average farm price is raised 5 cents at each end to 60-80 cents per pound.
The 2018/19 world projections include lower production for China, Pakistan, and Australia offset in part for higher production for Brazil. World production is nearly 800,000 bales lower this month, while 2018/19 consumption is reduced only 85,000 bales, as a 225,000-bale reduction for South Korea is largely offset by increases for Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
World beginning stocks for 2018/19 are unchanged from a month earlier, but ending stocks are 725,000 bales lower. At 83.0 million bales, 2018/19 world ending stocks are projected 5.2 million bales lower than a year earlier, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise for the third consecutive year.