Through Friday, February 13, ICE cotton futures recovered a cent in a modest up-trend (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). On Friday the most active May’26 settled down 20 points at 64.13 cents per pound.  The new crop Dec’26 settled the week at 68.36 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices rose across the week, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was flat-to-higher.

Other ag futures markets tracked different patterns across the week.  CBOT corn and soybeans started the week flat and then took one stair-step higher.  KC wheat shifted from a flat into more of an upward glide before leveling off.  ICE WTI crude oil futures trended higher, leveled off, angled sliightly highe, fell sharply, and finally bottomed.  In contrast, the U.S. Dollar Index glided lower, then bottomed and traded flat across balance of the week.  Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.

Cotton-focused news included unsupportive WASDE supply and demand adjustments to the world and U.S. cotton balance sheets. On Thursday the NCC confirmed early season expectations of low level (9 million) 2026 cotton plantings. The week also saw more unspectacular U.S. export sales for the week ending February 5, down from January’s marketing year highs. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, depending on the region, as well as very light to good demand. The supply question is resolving for the 2025 crop.  As of February 1, NASS forecasted ginning of 98% of forecasted production being ginned. As of February 12, USDSA AMS counted 98% of forecasted U.S. production as having been classed.

Through Thursday, February 12, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest decreased compared to the previous session.  In combination with mostly rising price settlements across the week, this had the appearance of short covering, which would be a change fromthe additional short positioning of recent weeks.  For the week ending  Tuesday February 10,  there was mixed spec positioning (more hedge fund shorts, but also more index fund net longs).

The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market.  It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) are at an historically low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side.

For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.