December Cotton was lower early Wednesday but moved back into positive territory as the session progressed. News on Tuesday that China will begin selling part of its state cotton reserves starting July 20 helped pressure the market, although China has not been a huge buyer of US cotton this year. As of July 2, Vietnam was the largest buyer so far for the 2025/26 marketing year at 4.039 million bales, followed by Pakistan at 1.557 million and Turkey at 1.110 million. China was seventh at 567,000. 

CONAB put Brazilian 2025/26 cotton production at 4.06M million tons (equivalent of 18.65 million US bales), up from a prior estimate of 3.98 million and down slightly from 4.08 million in 2024/25. In the July WASDE report, USDA put Brazilian 2025/26 production at 18.75 million bales and 2026/27 at 18.00 million. 

World Weather Inc. says West Texas still needs rain, especially in the dryland areas of the southwest.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this week and they may favor some of the drier areas in the south. The US cotton crop was rated 44% good/excellent as of July 12 versus 54% a year ago and a five-year average for this date at 48%. Texas was 30% G/E versus 45% a year ago and a five-year average of 35%