Report Highlights:
For MY 2024/25, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 13 percent compared to the current season, to 1.87 million hectares.
Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 15.4 million bales (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) on the back of significant area increase. Better cotton prices and profitability, compared to corn, are factors contributing to area expansion.
Yields are expected to reduce, however, by nearly nine percent compared to MY 2023/24, considering the potentially adverse effects of an El Niño year.
Post forecasts MY 2024/25 exports at 10.5 million bales (2.3 MMT), five percent less than MY 2023/24’s estimate at 11 million bales (2.4 MMT) due to higher global beginning stocks and expected increased competition with U.S. cotton.
Post forecasts domestic consumption at 3.5 million bales (0.76 MMT), relatively stable from MY 2023/24’s maintained estimate at 3.5 million bales (0.75MMT).
Post forecasts MY 2024/25 ending stocks at 7.6 million bales (1.7 MMT) due to higher production and reduced exports.
Source: USDA-FAS