China’s cotton imports will, after a surge this season, rise only marginally in 2021-22, supported by increasing use in domestic clothing, but with textile exports refocusing on anti-Covid clothing made largely from synthetic fibres.

 The US Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau, in its first forecasts for Chinese cotton imports in 2021-22, as starts in August, pegged them at 11.02m bales – up 460,000 bales, on its estimates, from the buy-ins expected for this season.

That would, while being the highest figure in eight years, represent a far smaller increase in imports by China than estimated for this season, when recovery from the pandemic was forecast sending purchases soaring by 3.43m bales.

And it reflects too expectations of a slowdown in the country’s consumption growth, which will, at 39.04m tonnes next season, remain a little below the 39.50m tonnes recorded in pre-pandemic 2018-19.

‘Resume an upward trend;

Consumption growth will be spurred by needs of the domestic clothing market which, after shrinking by 6.6% last year, “mainly due to the economic impacts of Covid-19”, is expected “to resume an upward trend.

“Beginning in late 2020, these [yarn and fabric] sectors reversed course and exhibited steady growth through the first two months of 2021, supporting recovering cotton use in 2021,” the bureau said, citing boosts to demand from “higher disposable income, rising living standards, population growth, and urbanisation”.

Although textile and apparel exports soared 7.2% to $291.2bn in 2020, the boost was led by demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) used in the fight against Covid-19.

Synthetic vs cotton

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, “textile exports skyrocketed by 28% in 2020 while apparel exports declined by 9.2% compared to 2019, with textile exports boosted by increased demand for medical PPE during the pandemic”.

This trend, which in 2020 drove textile exports above apparel ones for the first time, was expected to continue.

“Given the ongoing pandemic, Chinese industry experts believe that PPE will continue to drive textile exports, while exports of general textile and apparel products will face uncertainty,” the bureau said, while underlining that “PPE mostly contains synthetic rather than cotton fibre”.

Production prospects

The bureau flagged too some setback to China’s cotton consumption from US restrictions imposed on imports of clothing made from crop grown in Xinjiang, over allegations of slave labour.

“According to a preliminary analysis by a Chinese industry source, the ban could cut China’s yearly cotton use by more than 200,000 tonnes,” equivalent to about 920,000 bales.

Despite the curbs, cotton sowings for 2021-22 in Xinjiang – by far China’s biggest producing state for the fibre - were forecast little changed year on year, at 2.48m hectares, out of a national total flat at 3.12m hectares.

China’s overall cotton output this year was forecast at 35.86m bales, up 100,000 bales year on year.

‘Robust import levels’

With China by far the biggest cotton importer, accounting for roughly one-quarter of buy-ins this season, the country’s prospects in the fibre are viewed with keen interest by the industry worldwide.

The bureau’s somewhat downbeat tone on Chinese cotton imports is at odds with forecasts from some other commentators – including the USDA itself, which on Friday raised by 750,000 to bales to 11.0m bales its forecast for volumes this season.

That took the USDA nearly 1.2m bales above the estimate of its Beijing bureau.

The USDA said that Friday’s upgrade was based on data showing “robust import levels for January and February” which “further strengthen an already-strong seasonal pace”.

China’s farm ministry on Friday raised its forecast for 2020-21 imports by 200,000 tonnes to 2.4m tonnes (11.0m bales).