USDA has released its August 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton, where the operative word appears to be “lower”:

The U.S. cotton estimates for 2024/25 show lower acreage, production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Estimated domestic use is unchanged, and beginning stocks are raised slightly.

NASS’s first survey-based estimate of U.S. production is 15.1 million bales, down 1.9 million bales from last month’s WASDE forecast. All-cotton planted area is lowered in the Crop Production report by about 500,000 acres based on the Farm Service Agency administrative data, while abandonment is estimated at 23%, up 6 percentage points from last month. As a result, estimated harvested area of 8.6 million acres is about 11% lower than the July WASDE forecast. The all-cotton yield estimate of 840 pounds per acre is minimally lower from last month.

Exports are reduced 1 million bales due to lower world trade and the smaller crop. Ending stocks are reduced about 800,000 bales to 4.5 million, or 32% of use, primarily due to the smaller estimated crop. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is reduced 2 cents from the July forecast to 66 cents per pound. Revisions to the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet include a 150,000-bale increase in exports based on late reported shipments, and a 100,000-bale increase in ending stocks.

For the 2024/25 global cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and world trade are reduced. World production is reduced about 2.6 million bales, mostly due to lower area and production in the United States and India. Global consumption is reduced almost 1 million bales, mainly due to reduced consumption in China with largely offsetting changes elsewhere.

Beginning stocks are reduced 3.5 million bales, primarily driven by historical revisions to China’s balance sheet. World ending stocks are reduced 5.0 million bales from July to 77.6 million. The estimate for the “A” Index, a proxy for world cotton prices, is reduced 2 cents per pound from the July forecast to 81.5 cents.

Revisions to the 2023/24 world balance sheet include lower beginning and ending stocks, and lower production and consumption, resulting in a 3.5-million bale reduction in ending stocks.