USDA has released its July 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary of the U.S. domestic and global cotton balance sheets.

The July U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2025/26 shows higher production and ending stocks, lower beginning stocks, and unchanged consumption and imports compared to last month. Planted area is raised to 10.12 million acres based on the NASS June Acreage report. Harvested area is increased 6% to 8.66 million acres, reflecting higher planted area along with lower abandonment in the Southwest that is partially offset by higher abandonment in the Southeast. The national average yield for 2025/26 is lowered 1% to 809 pounds per harvested acre as the reduced abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of more lower-yielding dryland acres.

With the increase in harvested area exceeding the yield reduction, the production forecast is increased 600,000 bales from June’s projection to 14.60 million — up from 14.41 million last year. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 300,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. These revisions result in 2025/26 ending stocks of 4.60 million bales — up 300,000 from last month — for a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4%.

The projected season-average upland price for 2025/26 is unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.

For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and ending stocks are raised while trade and beginning stocks are reduced. World production is increased 1.43 million bales as China’s crop is raised 1 million bales, the U.S. crop is raised 600,000 bales, and Mexico’s crop is raised 100,000 bales, partially offset by reductions for Pakistan and Egypt. Global consumption is raised 365,000 bales with increases for Pakistan and Mexico partially offset by reductions for Italy and Germany. Global exports are lowered 100,000 bales.

Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 510,000 bales, reflecting reductions in the United States and China and small changes elsewhere. However, ending stocks for 2025/26 are increased by 520,000 bales as higher production more than offsets the increase in consumption and decline in beginning stocks.