USDA has released its July 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:

The U.S. 2022/23 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. While the June 30 Acreage report shows nearly 250,000 additional acres planted than in the previous NASS survey, harvested area is forecast nearly 600,000 acres lower this month. Continued below-average precipitation, primarily in Texas, means abandonment is projected higher this month – nearly four times the previous year’s level.

U.S. production is projected 1 million bales lower than in June, at 15.5 million. U.S. exports are also projected lower, down 500,000 bales to 14.0 million, reflecting both lower U.S. production and a reduction in world trade. At 2.4 million bales, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are now expected to be 1.0 million bales lower than in 2021/22.

For the global 2022/23 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are higher than projected in June, despite a 1.2 million bale cut to expected production. Beginning stocks are higher, as 2021/22 consumption is cut nearly 2.0 million bales and projected consumption in 2022/23 is also reduced by 1.6 million. While China accounts for half of the month-to-month decline in 2021/22 consumption, the change in 2022/23 consumption is spread over four major consumers: China, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Brazil is the only country besides the United States to have its 2022/23 production reduced.

World trade is cut 1.1 million bales, with reduced imports by China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Brazil’s exports are 500,000 bales lower, partly reflecting lower expected production there in 2021/22. Global ending stocks are projected 1.5 million bales higher than in June and about equal to the 2021/22 level.