USDA has released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for September 2021. Here’s this month’s summary for cotton:

Beginning stocks are slightly lower than last month in the 2021/22 U.S. cotton estimates, but a much larger increase in production means that both exports and ending stocks are higher than estimated in August. U.S. cotton production is forecast at 18.5 million bales, up 1.2 million bales despite a 4% decline in harvested area, largely due to increased projected yields in Texas. With both world trade and U.S. supplies higher this month, U.S. exports are 500,000 bales higher and ending stocks are 700,000 bales higher. A higher season average farm price for upland cotton is also expected, up 4 cents per pound from last month to 84 cents.

World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are 540,000 bales lower this month as a 1.4-million-bale world consumption increase spread over 2021/22 and the year before more than offsets a 750,000-bale increase in 2021/22 world production. Consumption is projected higher in both years for Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, and several smaller countries. Turkey’s consumption was also increased 100,000 bales for 2021/22, and Vietnam’s lowered by the same amount due to recent problems with COVID-19. World 2021/22 production is higher this month, as increases for the United States, Australia, and Argentina offset declines in India, Greece, and several countries in West Africa’s Franc Zone. World trade in 2021/22 is still projected down from the previous year’s record 48.5 million bales, but is projected 500,000 bales higher than in August, at 46.8 million bales.