John Robinson, Extension economist, cotton marketing 

I started attending the Beltwide Cotton Conferences in 1985, so I think this year represents my ruby anniversary. New Orleans was fun – good friends, good food, and lots of discussion about the cotton market. Here are a few points that I picked up on in the Economics and Marketing section. 

General Outlook  

For what it’s worth, most of the market analysts in attendance had a similar view of the upcoming season. There are some differences of opinion about the likely level of planted acreage. Depending on how you slice history, the current ratios of cotton prices to competing crop prices suggest anywhere from 10.5 million cotton acres planted to over 11.0 million. The outcome matters in shaping how tight, or not, the 2025 supply of cotton will be.   

There was an acknowledgment of a pick up in near-term demand (i.e., higher level of export sales and shipments), which is needed. Everybody acknowledges the issue of competition with Brazil. The bottom-line expectation is for year-over-year stable to higher ending stocks, which basically implies more of the same kind of price range that we saw for the 2024 crop.  

One point I learned: while the level of U.S. export net sales (reported weekly by USDA) is an indicator of demand, it is also important to consider the time period of future delivery. That is, the caution of mill buyers is reflected in the relatively short-term, hand-to-mouth type of buying that is going on. 

I did hear some sounds of hope: that export demand would pick up and that U.S. trade policy would be wiser with respect to tariffs. 

For additional thoughts on these and other cotton marketing topics, please visit my weekly on-line newsletter at http://agrilife.org/cottonmarketing/.