COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2010/11 show
slightly lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last
month. Beginning stocks are reduced 200,000 bales due to
an increase in the export forecast for 2009/10. Projections of
production, domestic mill use, and exports are unchanged.
Accordingly, ending stocks are revised down to 2.8 million
bales, equal to 17 percent of total use and the smallest
stocks level since 1995/96. The forecast range for the
marketing-year average price received by producers remains
at 60 to 74 cents per pound.
World projections for 2010/11 also include lower beginning
and ending stocks compared with last month. Beginning
stocks are reduced about 550,000 bales as higher stocks
forecast for China are more than offset by reductions in
Turkey, India, the United States, Pakistan, Brazil, and others.
Production is raised for Australia, Sudan, and Mexico, while
consumption is raised for Pakistan and Turkey. The resulting
global stocks level of 49.6 million bales is 41.5 percent of
total use which, if realized, would be the smallest stocks-to-
use ratio since 1994/95.
The world and U.S. estimates also include revisions for
2009/10 from last month. World beginning stocks are
reduced 450,000 bales, mainly in Turkey. World
consumption is raised about 500,000 bales, due to
adjustments for Pakistan and Turkey, where analysis
suggests that ending stocks will be tighter than previously
estimated. Imports are raised for China and Turkey, while
exports are raised for the United States and India, reflecting
activity to date. The forecast for the U.S. average price
received by producers of 61.5 to 63.5 cents per pound is
lowered one cent on the upper end of the range.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2008/09 : 107.48 170.08 30.16 109.94 62.70
2009/10 (Est.) : 102.89 165.59 35.26 116.43 52.21
2010/11 (Proj.) :
May : 113.88 166.64 35.72 119.08 50.13
June : 114.32 166.53 36.14 119.49 49.59
: United States
2008/09 : 12.82 22.87 13.28 3.59 6.34
2009/10 (Est.) : 12.19 18.53 12.25 3.40 2.90
2010/11 (Proj.) :
May : 16.70 19.80 13.50 3.30 3.00
June : 16.70 19.60 13.50 3.30 2.80
: Foreign 3/
2008/09 : 94.66 147.22 16.88 106.35 56.36
2009/10 (Est.) : 90.71 147.06 23.01 113.03 49.31
2010/11 (Proj.) :
May : 97.18 146.83 22.22 115.78 47.13
June : 97.62 146.93 22.64 116.19 46.79
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-483-17 June 2010
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2010/11 Projections
Item : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :===============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 9.47 9.15 10.51 * 10.51 *
Harvested : 7.57 7.53 9.83 * 9.83 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 813 777 815 * 815 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 10.05 6.34 3.10 2.90
Production : 12.82 12.19 16.70 16.70
Imports : 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
Supply, total : 22.87 18.53 19.80 19.60
Domestic use : 3.59 3.40 3.30 3.30
Exports : 13.28 12.25 13.50 13.50
Use, total : 16.86 15.65 16.80 16.80
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.33 -0.02 0.00 0.00
Ending stocks : 6.34 2.90 3.00 2.80
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 47.8 61.5-63.5 60.0-74.0 60.0-74.0
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Upland cotton marketing year
weighted average price received by farmers in cents per pound. *Planted area
as reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based
on 2000-2009 average abandonment, weighted by region and adjusted to reflect unusually
favorable soil moisture conditions in the Southwest. Projected yield per harvested acre
based on 2005-2009 average yields, weighted by region.
WASDE-483-26 June 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2008/09
:
World : 62.61 107.48 30.04 109.94 30.16 -2.67 62.70
United States : 10.05 12.82 3/ 3.59 13.28 -0.33 6.34
Total foreign : 52.56 94.66 30.04 106.35 16.88 -2.33 56.36
Major exporters 4/ : 18.81 42.36 1.54 26.83 13.93 -0.19 22.15
Central Asia 5/ : 2.42 7.12 0.01 1.60 4.45 0.00 3.49
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.67 2.41 3/ 0.19 2.20 0.00 0.70
S. Hemis. 7/ : 8.30 8.68 0.31 5.52 4.60 -0.20 7.38
Australia : 0.60 1.50 3/ 0.05 1.20 -0.07 0.93
Brazil : 6.25 5.48 0.05 4.20 2.74 -0.15 4.99
India : 6.63 22.60 0.80 17.75 2.36 0.00 9.92
Major importers 8/ : 31.91 49.51 26.03 75.24 1.88 -2.15 32.48
Mexico : 0.93 0.57 1.32 1.85 0.18 0.03 0.76
China : 20.50 36.70 7.00 44.00 0.08 -2.25 22.37
EU-27 9/ : 0.67 1.23 0.96 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.65
Turkey : 1.95 1.93 2.92 5.10 0.14 -0.09 1.65
Pakistan : 5.39 9.00 1.95 11.25 0.38 0.03 4.69
Indonesia : 0.39 0.03 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand : 0.32 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.03 0.29
Bangladesh : 0.62 0.04 3.80 3.75 0.00 0.01 0.70
Vietnam : 0.25 0.01 1.23 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24
:
: 2009/10 (Estimated)
:
World : 62.70 102.89 35.70 116.43 35.26 -2.60 52.21
United States : 6.34 12.19 0.01 3.40 12.25 -0.02 2.90
Total foreign : 56.36 90.71 35.69 113.03 23.01 -2.58 49.31
Major exporters 4/ : 22.15 42.41 1.50 28.77 19.59 -0.19 17.89
Central Asia 5/ : 3.49 6.17 0.01 1.69 5.98 0.00 2.00
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.70 2.16 3/ 0.18 2.17 0.00 0.51
S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.38 9.15 0.34 5.70 4.54 -0.20 6.83
Australia : 0.93 1.60 3/ 0.04 1.83 -0.07 0.74
Brazil : 4.99 5.75 0.10 4.40 1.90 -0.15 4.69
India : 9.92 23.50 0.60 19.50 6.40 0.00 8.12
Major importers 8/ : 32.48 45.68 31.56 80.02 2.29 -2.39 29.81
Mexico : 0.76 0.42 1.50 1.90 0.13 0.03 0.64
China : 22.37 32.50 10.80 47.50 0.03 -2.50 20.64
EU-27 9/ : 0.65 1.01 0.89 0.98 1.06 0.05 0.46
Turkey : 1.65 1.75 3.90 5.60 0.18 -0.08 1.61
Pakistan : 4.69 9.90 1.70 11.50 0.75 0.03 4.01
Indonesia : 0.35 0.03 2.10 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.36
Thailand : 0.29 3/ 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.29
Bangladesh : 0.70 0.05 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.74
Vietnam : 0.24 0.02 1.70 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.36
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
WASDE-483-27 June 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2010/11 (Projected)
World :
May : 52.75 113.88 35.73 119.08 35.72 -2.58 50.13
June : 52.21 114.32 36.12 119.49 36.14 -2.58 49.59
United States :
May : 3.10 16.70 3/ 3.30 13.50 0.00 3.00
June : 2.90 16.70 3/ 3.30 13.50 0.00 2.80
Total foreign :
May : 49.65 97.18 35.73 115.78 22.22 -2.58 47.13
June : 49.31 97.62 36.12 116.19 22.64 -2.58 46.79
Major exporters 4/ :
May : 18.41 46.85 1.43 29.94 18.63 -0.19 18.30
June : 17.89 47.00 1.64 29.94 18.94 -0.19 17.83
Central Asia 5/May : 2.10 6.84 0.01 1.73 5.45 0.00 1.76
Jun : 2.00 6.79 0.01 1.73 5.42 0.00 1.65
Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/May : 0.51 2.61 3/ 0.19 2.38 0.00 0.56
Jun : 0.51 2.61 3/ 0.18 2.42 0.00 0.51
S. Hemis 7/ May : 7.01 10.82 0.30 5.95 4.68 -0.20 7.69
Jun : 6.83 11.02 0.51 5.95 4.88 -0.20 7.73
Australia May : 0.79 2.00 3/ 0.04 1.85 -0.07 0.97
Jun : 0.74 2.20 3/ 0.04 1.85 -0.07 1.12
Brazil May : 4.79 6.80 0.09 4.60 2.00 -0.15 5.23
Jun : 4.69 6.80 0.30 4.60 2.20 -0.15 5.14
India May : 8.32 25.00 0.63 20.40 5.70 0.00 7.85
Jun : 8.12 25.00 0.63 20.40 5.80 0.00 7.55
Major importers 8/ :
May : 29.61 47.58 31.69 81.60 2.44 -2.39 27.22
June : 29.81 47.72 31.89 82.00 2.49 -2.39 27.31
Mexico May : 0.66 0.55 1.60 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.69
Jun : 0.64 0.64 1.50 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.65
China May : 19.84 33.00 11.50 49.00 0.03 -2.50 17.82
Jun : 20.64 33.00 11.50 49.00 0.03 -2.50 18.62
EU-27 9/ May : 0.46 1.33 0.84 0.93 1.21 0.05 0.44
Jun : 0.46 1.38 0.84 0.93 1.26 0.05 0.44
Turkey May : 2.03 2.10 2.70 5.40 0.15 -0.08 1.36
Jun : 1.61 2.10 3.00 5.50 0.15 -0.08 1.14
Pakistan May : 4.16 10.50 1.90 11.40 0.70 0.03 4.44
Jun : 4.01 10.50 1.90 11.70 0.70 0.03 3.99
Indonesia May : 0.36 0.03 2.20 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.42
Jun : 0.36 0.03 2.20 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.42
Thailand May : 0.29 3/ 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.28
Jun : 0.29 3/ 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.28
Bangladesh May : 0.74 0.05 4.25 4.25 0.00 0.01 0.78
Jun : 0.74 0.05 4.25 4.25 0.00 0.01 0.78
Vietnam May : 0.36 0.02 1.78 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.35
Jun : 0.36 0.02 1.78 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.35
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and
the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales.
4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.
5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia,
Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,
and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
