The 2025/26 Brazilian cotton harvest is expected to see a reduction in planted area, according to a survey by StoneX, a global financial services company. Overall, the area planted in Brazil for the upcoming cycle is expected to be 2,04 million hectares, a 3,5% reduction compared to the 2024/25 harvest.

According to StoneX's Market Intelligence analyst, Raphael Bulascoschi (pictured), Mato Grosso producers project a sharper reduction, with an area of 1,44 million hectares—a drop of 75 hectares. "Considering productivity within the trend, production should reach 3,7 million tons next year, representing a 4,3% decline compared to the current harvest," Bulascoschi notes.

The outlook is different when looking ahead to the 2024/25 harvest, where the record production of 3,9 million tons of cotton fiber is expected to be confirmed. "Even so, the excess moisture recorded in August may have compromised the quality of the remaining fiber in Mato Grosso, a factor that will remain on the Brazilian cotton market's radar in the coming weeks," he states.

Slow shipments and falling domestic consumption

According to the survey, cotton shipments have been slower in recent weeks. Despite this, export projections for 2025 remain at 2,9 million tons, with shipments expected to increase in the fourth quarter.

Regarding domestic consumption, StoneX revised its estimate for the 2025/26 harvest downward, now at 685 tons (-35 tons). This scenario reflects the low dynamism of the Brazilian textile sector, pressured by the adverse macroeconomic environment.

“Despite this, the reduction in production more than offset the adjustment in domestic consumption, resulting in less comfortable final stocks for the next cycle, projected at 3,08 million tons of cotton,” he concluded.