DJ ICE Cotton Review: Rises On Spillover, Chart Cues

DJ ICE Cotton Review: Rises On Spillover, Chart Cues

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Nearby cotton for October delivery settled 0.92 cent, or 1%, higher at 73.93
cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S.

Cotton prices have skidded 3% since June 30, when the U.S. Department of
Agriculture estimated that high cotton prices had lifted the amount of domestic
acres planted to the commodity. Rebounding world textile demand sparked a
recovery in use of the fiber. Favorable weather is also aiding the development
of the 18.30 million bales of cotton thought to be growing in U.S. fields, USDA
data show. Pressure from a bumper crop, as well as uncertainty about upcoming
demand, are keeping cotton within a narrow trading range.

After such sharp losses, technical charts indicated that speculative and
fund traders, like banks and hedge funds, should buy back previously sold
positions to exit bearish exposure in the market.

"We are in a technical condition that could allow this market to run up to
75.50 area," said Keith Brown of Keith Brown & Co. in Moultrie, Ga.

Lack of selling Tuesday also allowed prices to rise, Brown said. Selling
related to producer sales kicks in at 75 cents, 75.50 and each 50-cent
increment thereafter, he said.

The next downside price objective for the cotton market bears is to push and
close December futures below solid technical support at 72.50 cents, a
technical analyst said. Below that lies chart support at 72.00 cents, the
analyst said.

Late losses in equities pulled cotton prices lower as Federal Reserve
Chairman discussed a "somewhat weaker outlook" for the U.S. economy.

"They're thinking that the recovery is getting weaker and that consumer
spending will be soft," said Tom Mikulski, senior market analyst at
Lind-Waldock in Chicago.

China's June cotton imports were up 5% on the year, but down 10% from May,
the country's customs administration said Wednesday. China is the world's No. 1
cotton importer, producer and textile manufacturer. The U.S. is the leading
cotton exporter and No. 3 producer behind India. In the first half of the year,
China imported more than double of last years cotton imports. "Imports were
very weak amid global recessionary conditions that affected China's cotton
imports for its export-oriented textile industry," Barclays Capital said in a
market letter.

Volume was estimated 16,627 lots. In options, approximately 1,956 calls and
826 puts traded on the floor, according to exchange data.

ICE daily cotton stocks decreased Tuesday to total 87,130, with 7,555
decertification orders, according to exchange data.

ICE cotton open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 920 positions Wednesday to total 157,763, according
to the exchange.
Close Change Range
Oct 78.77 +0.99 78.45-79.27
Dec 73.93 +0.92 73.24-74.48
Mar 74.31 +0.79 73.97-74.90

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