In its continuing seven-day melt, December cotton closed out Monday at limit-down. Trading is being plagued by massive speculative liquidation. The fundamental drivers for this bearish decline are fears of an economic recession and improving weather patterns for some production areas. In addition, the restrictive COVID-19 lockdowns in China are upending its economic activities.    

Monday afternoon, USDA will update the condition of the 2022 crop. The overall good-to-excellent rating fell by 6 percentage points last week.    

The six- to 10-day outlook indicates normal to above-normal rain for much of the Cotton Belt. However, temperatures are looking above normal. The eight- to 14-day outlook suggests normal rain and above-normal temperatures for most of the Cotton Belt.      

This Thursday, USDA will release its Planted Acres report. The average industry estimate calls for 12.20 million planted acres, which is very close to the March intentions of 12.234 million. However, some analysts are expecting increased acreage.    

July cotton has been nothing short of amazing in its process swings. On Friday alone, the high/low range spanned some 32.00 cents. It is in delivery until July 7.    

For Monday, July cotton settled at 100.35 cents, down 3.41 cents, December closed at 94.05 cents, down 4.00 cents and March 2023 finished at 89.52 cents, 4.00 cents lower; estimated volume was 32,584 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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