Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

The cotton market climbed down its bullish ladder to close fractionally higher. It was somewhat disappointing given the stronger Dow, the weaker U.S. dollar, and potentially fewer 2023 acres. At one time during Monday's session, the cotton complex was posting triple-digit highs.    

Tuesday the Labor Department (BLS) will issue its January CPI data. Supposedly, consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated. Some economists said it raises the risk of higher inflation readings in the months ahead. It's a big number that will likely affect the U.S. dollar and thus equities and commodities. The data is out at 8:30 a.m. EST. In addition, the market will also see retail sales on Wednesday (+1.7%), and the Producer Prices Index (+0.4%) on Thursday. All of those reports could have a wild effect on the dollar and the Dow, plus related commodities.    

Over this past weekend, NCC presented its membership survey on 2023 acres. That number was 11.4 million intended cotton acres this spring, which is down 17% from 2022. However, the pitiful response of the market suggests that demand and not supply will rule prices this year. To that end, China seems slow to awaken from COVID, and supposedly Turkey has lost some 80% of her textile spinning capacity due to last week's earthquake.    

Crude oil prices turned positive Monday, after earlier slipping on short-term demand concerns ahead of the U.S. inflation data due Tuesday. However, some suppliers were relieved upon hearing that a cargo of Azeri crude set sail from Turkey's Ceyhan port on Monday, the first since a devastating earthquake in the region on Feb. 6. Ceyhan is the storage and loading point for pipelines that carry oil from Azerbaijan and Iraq.    

Today, March 2023 finished at 85.64 cents, plus .37, July settled at 86.22 cents, up .15, and December 2023, ended at 84.97 cents, .11 higher. Monday's estimated volume was 58,338 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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