Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

The cotton market retreated from a near chart breakout Monday. Its retreat came despite the market's 5-cent run of last week. In fact, that rally carried over into Monday's early session trade, but apparently no further buying was induced.    

Monday afternoon, USDA will issue its weekly progress data. Thus far, there have been no planting delays due to weather. Last week's report had the national crop at 15% planted, with Texas at 20% done, and Georgia at 8% complete.    

The one- to five-day forecast does allow for some rain across West Texas. Moreover, the six- to 10- and the eight- to 14-day outlooks also indicate above-normal chances for precipitation. The current U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show a worsening of condition for West Texas and the Southwest in general. Last Friday, the CFTC released its Commitments of Traders report. Its data showed that the managed money traders were net sellers of nearly 1600 contracts, increasing their net short to 21,888 contracts.    

Also this week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its updated CPI and PPI data. If those reports reflect stubborn inflation readings, then the Federal Reserve may see fit to hike rates again.    

Spot May cotton expired Monday on the close. That settlement price was 81.53 cents.    

Monday, July settled at 83.30 cents, down 0.60 cent and December 2023 ended at 83.00 cents, 0.24 cent lower. Estimated volume was 29,117 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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