Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

The cotton market was sharply lower Tuesday due, in some measure, to farmer fixations. It has been widely believed that a huge supply of unpriced cotton was held over from last year. Now, with the 2023 crop being seeded, the pressure is on to sell that old crop supply. This is not the first time the cotton market has acted contra-seasonally. In 2018 and 2019, from their harvest averages, both of those respective seasons saw prices plummet into June.    

The U.S. dollar was lower Tuesday amid a slump in U.S. manufacturing data. Traders took it as a sign of further slowing of the American economy. The ISM survey showed that manufacturing fell to the lowest level in nearly three years. The data had a negative effect on cotton as well.    

This Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export sales. Last week saw slightly lower sales, but superior shipments. China was the leader in both of those categories.    

This Friday, the U.S. markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday/Easter. However, the Labor Department will still release its monthly jobs report in the morning. This number will play a key role as to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates at its May meeting.    

As a reminder, options on the May cotton futures expire on April 14 or in 10 days. Tuesday, May 2023 finished at 81.05 cents, down 1.33 cents, July settled at 81.38 cents, down 1.26 cents and December 2023, ended at 81.74 cents, 1.18 cents lower. Estimated volume was 38,365 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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