Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

The cotton market ran up and down its daily range several times Tuesday as traders couldn't get a real feel for direction. The stronger U.S. dollar, widespread Chinese COVID-19 shutdowns and a falling Dow Jones all added to cotton's bearish chaos.    

Tuesday afternoon, USDA will issue its weekly crop condition report. Last week, tabulators rated the 2022 crop as 34% good to excellent, versus the previous 31% good to excellent. The top category to watch is the "bolls open." Last week, it showed the crop was 28% open versus the five-year average of 24%. Of course, heavy rains on open bolls will hurt quality and quantity.    

Weather-wise the six- to 10-day forecast shows below-normal temperatures for the Delta and the Southeast, with near normal rainfall. Texas looks to have slightly above-normal temperatures and below normal rainfall.    

Next Monday, USDA will issue its September WASDE report. Last month the agency massively slashed 2022 U.S. production by nearly 3 million bales. Traders are looking for either confirmation of the huge August cut, or evidence of overkill. Some analysts are expecting some production to be added back to the crop. The report is out Monday, the Sept. 12.    

For Tuesday, December closed at 103.55 cents, up 0.34 cent, March 2023 finished at 100.38 cents, up 0.24 cent and July 2023 settled at 95.01 cents, 0.56 cent higher; estimated volume was 33,282 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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