Market shrugged off a crop year high in U.S. weekly export sales, apparently having discounted forecasts for a killing freeze in the Texas High Plains. Some producers rushed to apply boll openers.
Cotton futures settled on sharp losses Thursday, shrugging off a marketing year high reported in U.S. weekly export sales and apparently having discounted forecasts for a killing freeze in the Texas High Plains.
December lost 112 points to close at 68.19 cents, just off the low of its 117-point range from down four points at 69.27 cents to down 121 points at 68.10 cents. It opened down six ticks overnight, never made it to the plus side and closed below lows of the prior two sessions.
March shed 100 points to settle at 68.06 cents, trading within a 101-point range from 68.99 to 67.98 cents. The other contracts finished up nine points to down 96 points.
Volume rose to an estimated 24,263 lots from 21,120 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 9,227 lots or 44%, EFS 1,502 lots and EFP 92 lots. Options volume increased to 6,196 lots (1,971 calls and 4,225 puts) from 3,770 lots (2,085 calls and (1,684 puts).
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season jumped to 305,300 running bales during the week ended last Thursday from a strong 270,700 RB the previous week, boosting 2017-18 commitments to 8.462 million RB.
The lead of commitments — outstanding sales of 6.724 million RB plus shipments — over those of a year ago widened 169,000 RB to 2.24 million or to 36% and reached 60% of USDA’s export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 43% of final 2016-17 shipments.
Sales for delivery next season of 46,800 RB hiked the total for both crop years to 352,100 RB and brought 2018-19 commitments to 838,600 RB, up 410,600 RB from forward bookings a year ago.
All-cotton exports edged up to 99,700 RB from 91,800 the prior week, still behind the pace needed to achieve the USDA projection. Shipments need to average roughly 308,200 RB a week to reach the estimate, while sales averaging around 140,100 RB weekly would match the export forecast.
The pace of shipments is expected to improve as more cotton enters market pipelines. Shipments for the season of 1.737 million RB were 335,000 RB behind a year ago and were about 12% of the forecast, compared with about 14% of final 2016-17 exports at the corresponding point last season.
Meanwhile, some producers on the Texas High Plains rushed to apply boll openers to facilitate dry-down ahead of a hard freeze expected in much of the region from late Friday night into Sunday morning.
Withdrawal of moisture from unopened bolls could lessen damage from a killing freeze that would be expected on green, sappy cotton. A wide range of factors — planting dates, varietal differences and varying effects of earlier maturity-slowing cool, cloudy wet spells, among others — will affect the freeze’s crop impact.
Temperatures across the cotton region are expected to range from the low 20s to low 30s, with a low of 26 degrees in prospect for Lubbock.
The latest weekly figures showed 22,238 bales of High Plains cotton had been graded through last Thursday, including 18,936 bales at Lamesa and 3,302 bales at Lubbock. Tenderable cotton accounted for 50.6% at Lamesa and 31% at Lubbock.
Futures open interest declined 1,022 lots to 232,800 on Wednesday, with December’s down 2,165 lots to 115,111 and March’s up 745 lots to 76,728. Certified stocks were unchanged at 2,047 bales.
Source: Agfax
